Ecological effects of climate change on temperate grasslands

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Key environmental changes expected in Canada by the 2080s include: (i) levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide of between 525 and 810 parts per million; (ii) average summer temperature increases in the agricutural regions of 3 to 9 degrees C; and (iii) a summer rainfall deficit in these regions of between 0 and 90 mm of water.  Mitigation and adaptation policy-making requires scientific estimates of the impact of such changes.      The long-term objective (>10 years) of my research program is to be able to predict the likely changes to temperate grassland ecosystems that will arise as a result of climate change.  My interim objective (5-10 years) is to project the consequences of climate change for an 'exemplar system' comprising temperate pasture grasses (tall fescue and perennial ryegrass) their endophytic fungi (Neotyphodium coenophialum and N. lolii) and the cereal aphids (primarily Rhopalosiphum padi) that use these grasses as hosts.  My approach to meeting these objectives is to mix experiments and mathematical modeling, working from the level of biochemistry to population and community ecology.      Permanent pastures occupy some 70% of the world's agricultural lands.  Perennial ryegrass and tall fescue dominate the world's improved temperate pastures.  Endophytic fungi infecting these agricultural grasses cause fescue toxicosis, ryegrass staggers and a host of other animal health related losses amounting to more than $1Bn USD per annum.  Cereal aphids are one of the largest and most important groups of crop pests and disease vectors worldwide but particularly in temperate regions.  Therefore, specific predictions about the effects of climate change on this system will have direct practical benefits for our long-term management of this vital ecological resource, regardless of the degree of generality offered by this example or the advancements in basic ecological knowledge that will result from this work.