Stability in mathematical biology

数学生物学中的稳定性

• 批准号: 327408-2006
• 负责人: McCluskey, Connell
• 金额: $ 0.73万
• 依托单位: Wilfrid Laurier University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2008-01-01 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=397760
• 关键词: Stability; mathematical; biology

Epidemiological systems frequently display patterns that are stable over long time periods.  Since it is not feasible to perform experiments relating to epidemic outbreaks, mathematical modelling has become an important tool for the investigation of the mechanisms that govern disease dynamics at the population level. Typically, a population under investigation is divided into a small number of subgroups based on epidemiological status: susceptible, exposed, infectious and vaccinated, for example.  The change in the sizes of these groups over time can often be modeled with an ordinary differential equation. The main objective of my research program is to develop constructive approaches for investigating the stability properties of epidemic models.  At present, the theory of demonstrating stability is well-developed, however, there is a significant gap between the theory and its application. Theoretical results tend to be of the form: "If a function satisfying certain conditions exists, then the system is stable."  This provides no insight into how the necessary function can be found or constructed. This will provide insight into such issues as designing vaccination strategies which lead to a synchronized eradiaction of a disease over multiple cities or countries.

流行病学系统经常显示出长期稳定的模式，由于进行与流行病爆发有关的实验是不可行的，数学建模已成为研究在人口一级控制疾病动态的机制的重要工具。通常情况下，根据流行病学状况将受调查的人群分为少数亚组：例如易感、暴露、传染和接种疫苗，这些群体的规模随时间的变化通常可以用常微分方程建模。目前，流行病模型的稳定性证明理论已经比较成熟，但理论与实际应用之间还存在很大的差距。理论结果往往是这样的形式：“如果一个满足一定条件的函数存在，那么系统是稳定的。“这并没有提供如何找到或构建必要功能的见解。这将为设计疫苗接种战略等问题提供深入见解，这些战略将导致在多个城市或国家同步消灭一种疾病。