Spatial dynamic modeling for environmental resource management

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The goal of my research proposal is to design and build spatially-explicit dynamic models, namely cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) for environmental resource management. A MAS/CA model is made of two components: a CA model that represents the dynamics of the landscape over which actors make decisions, and a MAS that describes the decision-making architecture of these actors (agents). These two components are then integrated through feedback mechanisms between the agents and their environment. Such models can be used by scientists and land managers to better understand the intricate relationships between social systems and natural systems and to guide decision-making. More specifically, two MAS/CA models will be developed at a local and a regional scale, respectively, in the Calgary region. They will be used to fulfill two objectives: first, to understand how stakeholders make decisions and resolve conflict in a context of common-pool land-use resources, and second to simulate the impact of different management decision scenarios on the environment within which these stakeholders interact. This research will bring a considerable contribution to the field of MAS and CA modeling through a series of conceptual and methodological improvements, such as the use of a vector-based CA model to better represent the evolution of the landscape, the simulation of the learning process of the agents (stakeholders), the representation of their decision-making process, and the feedback mechanism between the agents and their environment. The research will be conducted within the framework of Post-Normal Science and using a participatory approach where the stakeholders will be involved in all major phases of the modeling process. The developed models will help them understanding which strategies could be applied to ensure land-use resource sustainability in their region. The approach proposed in this proposal could also be applied to other regions in Alberta and Canada where managing common-pool land resources is a critical issue.