Complex system modeling to study coupled natural-human systems

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My research program is in Geographic Information Science and Complex Systems Modelling to study coupled natural/human systems in which human activities interact with natural landscape components, raising complex issues of environmental resource management. It involves the development of spatial simulation models, i.e, cellular automata (CA) and agent-based models (ABMs) as laboratories to understand the rules that govern the evolution of these systems, and to explore the future paths they can take through the testing of alternative scenarios. While CA models represent entities in a landscape that change state according to the influence of their neighbors and some external constraints, ABMs are designed to capture aspects of intelligent behaviour through a community of interacting agents (i.e., any entity of the real world) and an environment that supports their activities through a set of rules. These models become parts of spatial decision support systems to study how human activities affect the environment over which they occur. My objective is to improve the design of CA and ABMs to overcome some of their current limitations and test their robustness to ensure their applicability for land use, water, and wildlife management. This includes: improving the calibration technique, running sensitivity analyses, refining the definition of critical components of the models, developing adequate mechanisms to link these models and run what-if scenarios. While conventional validation techniques cannot be applied in complex system modeling, several strategies are employed to assess the quality of the results. The research program will deliver unique spatial modeling tools that could be used to explore scenarios of land development, evaluate their impact over time, support negotiation among concerned stakeholders, and guide decision making. It will offer training to four Ph.D. students, one M.Sc. student, and one post-doctoral fellow in complex system modeling approaches and geospatial technologies (remote sensing, spatial databases, geovisualization) that are needed for integrated environmental resource management.