Understanding global ecological change in forests: empirical and modelling approaches

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Global ecological change and/or its mitigation are having unexpected effects on ecosystem structure and dynamics. Indicators of forest structure and biodiversity can be used to describe such changes, however an understanding of how various stressors interact with natural disturbance regimes to affect such indicators is unknown, and a theory of disturbance ecology in the face of stressors associated with global ecological change is lacking. Such interactions can have a variety of effects -- from changing tree growth rates to species niche expansion -- which can in turn affect biodiversity patterns. Ecologists have hypothesized that "cross-scale interactions, likely those between the local demographics of species at the fine scale and the landscape configuration of patches at the broad scale...have significant implications for the conservation of biodiversity." Thus an approach that links individuals to landscapes is required. This cannot always be done via real time observation, thus modelling is required. Furthermore, field observations need to be integrated with modelling approaches which an provide more informed scenarios for prediction. Better knowledge of changes to come could help with adaptation strategies and avert future "surprises".