Structure and Functionality in Coupled Socio-Ecological Dynamics

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Both modern ecological catastrophes as well as examples of ecosystem recovery and resilience in response to our impacts on the natural world make it clear that humans and ecosystems form a single, coupled social-ecological system (SES) where humans not only cause ecosystem impacts, but also react to them. This interrelated nature reveals the myriad of human actions that can have both positive or negative impacts, for instance ecological restoration efforts versus introducing invasive species or resource over-exploitation. Such examples often illustrate regime shifts resulting from positive feedbacks that represent synergies between disparate mechanisms. Most existing SES models lack important structure on both the human and ecological sides which can be crucial for applying theoretical findings to real-world systems. The long-term objective is to develop novel theoretical frameworks of intermediate complexity for studying SESs, balancing both realism and simplicity to identify important feedbacks and synergies. Additionally, studying a diverse array of SESs will improve on tools for policy makers managing ecosystems in the face of global changes. Short-term objectives include adding realism to existing SES models through new functional forms and trait-based structure, incorporating new data types and sources, as well as higher-level rewiring through the introduction of new state variables and human-environment interactions. These novel approaches with applications to metapopulation frameworks will improve our understanding of SES feedbacks, specifically in the face of human and environmental disturbances. The models will predict what behavioural/ecological parameters/feedbacks are most important to the sustainability of their respective systems and cross-system comparisons will reveal higher-level insights. Questions include: What combination of increased social learning and behavioural incentive is optimal to achieve sustainable outcomes in trait-structured ecosystems and human populations? What do coupled SES models reveal that we cannot know studying these systems in isolation? How does the complex coupling of human inputs, outputs and social dynamics affect our understanding of ecosystem management? How do specific disturbance interactions lead to catastrophic regime shifts? What types of synchrony between human and ecological metapopulations are beneficial/detrimental to ecosystem resilience and how can they be managed? Models will span a range of types including simple mechanistic models derived from first principles, to phenomenological models that subsume chunks of system complexity, to larger and more detailed system dynamic models--all of which can be relevant to both informing policy and gaining scientific insight.