Seismicity analyses utilizing large-scale computer simulations

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The main objectives of this proposal are to carry out large-scale numerical simulations of seismicity using a realistic fault-based computer model and also to develop new statistical methods and techniques in the analysis of seismicity. The primary output of simulations will be catalogs of synthetic earthquakes spanning long periods of time to which we will apply state-of-the-art statistical analysis in order to extract "signals" from the "noise". Due to complex behavior, the physics and mechanisms of earthquakes are still far from being fully understood. Further research is required to develop realistic models and to use these models to analyze past and future seismic activity. These studies are also crucial from the earthquake hazard assessment point of view where probabilistic forecasting plays an essential part.