Physics and Statistics of Earthquake Processes

地震过程物理学与统计学

• 批准号: RGPIN-2020-06424
• 负责人: Shcherbakov, Robert
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=741203
• 关键词: Physics; Statistics; Earthquake; Processes

The major goal of the proposed research program is to advance our understanding of the physical mechanisms that govern the occurrence of natural and induced earthquakes. This also includes the development of a robust statistical framework for constraining the magnitudes of future earthquakes based on the observation of past seismicity. This research is motivated by the fact that the comprehensive understanding of the physical mechanisms and underlying stochastic dynamics that control the occurrence of earthquakes remains one of the challenging and not fully solved problems in earthquake seismology. In addition, the problem of formulating a reliable and operational scheme for the forecasting of the magnitudes of the natural or induced earthquakes to occur is of critical importance. To achieve the above goals, I propose to carry out comprehensive statistical and geomechanical modelling of temporal and spatial aspects of natural and man-made seismicity. This will allow us to gain better understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and is crucial from the earthquake hazard assessment and mitigation points of view where probabilistic forecasting plays an essential role. In summary, my HQP and I will study various statistical and physical aspects of natural and man-made seismicity. This includes the development of a robust statistical framework for forecasting the magnitudes of future largest expected earthquakes given the information on past seismicity. It also includes the development of stochastic and geomechanical models to study earthquake triggering processes associated with hydraulic fracturing operations. Finally, we will develop several mechanical, geomechanical, and inverse models to quantify various aspects of the occurrence of aftershocks and to better understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake triggering. The methods that will be employed and the analytic and computational tools that will be developed will advance our knowledge and understanding of the hazards associated with natural and induced seismicity.

提出的研究计划的主要目标是促进我们对控制自然和诱发地震发生的物理机制的理解。这还包括发展一个强有力的统计框架，根据对过去地震活动的观察来限制未来地震的震级。这项研究的动机是，对控制地震发生的物理机制和潜在的随机动力学的全面理解仍然是地震地震学中具有挑战性和尚未完全解决的问题之一。此外，制定一个可靠的和可操作的方案来预测将要发生的自然或诱发地震的震级的问题是至关重要的。为了实现上述目标，我建议对自然和人为地震活动的时空方面进行全面的统计和地质力学建模。这将使我们能够更好地了解地震过程的物理性质，从地震危害评估和减灾的角度来看，这是至关重要的，因为概率预报在其中起着至关重要的作用。总之，我的HQP和我将研究自然和人为地震活动的各种统计和物理方面。这包括建立一个强有力的统计框架，根据过去地震活动的信息预测未来最大地震的震级。它还包括开发随机和地质力学模型，以研究与水力压裂作业相关的地震触发过程。最后，我们将开发几个力学、地质力学和逆模型来量化余震发生的各个方面，并更好地理解地震触发的物理机制。将采用的方法以及将开发的分析和计算工具将提高我们对与自然和诱发地震活动相关的危害的认识和理解。