Physics and Statistics of Earthquake Processes

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The major goal of the proposed research program is to advance our understanding of the physical mechanisms that govern the occurrence of natural and induced earthquakes. This also includes the development of a robust statistical framework for constraining the magnitudes of future earthquakes based on the observation of past seismicity. This research is motivated by the fact that the comprehensive understanding of the physical mechanisms and underlying stochastic dynamics that control the occurrence of earthquakes remains one of the challenging and not fully solved problems in earthquake seismology. In addition, the problem of formulating a reliable and operational scheme for the forecasting of the magnitudes of the natural or induced earthquakes to occur is of critical importance. To achieve the above goals, I propose to carry out comprehensive statistical and geomechanical modelling of temporal and spatial aspects of natural and man-made seismicity. This will allow us to gain better understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and is crucial from the earthquake hazard assessment and mitigation points of view where probabilistic forecasting plays an essential role. In summary, my HQP and I will study various statistical and physical aspects of natural and man-made seismicity. This includes the development of a robust statistical framework for forecasting the magnitudes of future largest expected earthquakes given the information on past seismicity. It also includes the development of stochastic and geomechanical models to study earthquake triggering processes associated with hydraulic fracturing operations. Finally, we will develop several mechanical, geomechanical, and inverse models to quantify various aspects of the occurrence of aftershocks and to better understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake triggering. The methods that will be employed and the analytic and computational tools that will be developed will advance our knowledge and understanding of the hazards associated with natural and induced seismicity.