Modeling the response of the physical and biological systems of the Arctic to climate change

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The year 2007 marked a record low in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic, with 20\% less ice than the previous all-time record minimum of 2005, an area larger than Ontario. This is part of a long-term trend of more than 8\% ice extent decline per decade since the late seventies. Analysis of simulation results from a Global Climate Model by the PI and colleagues, participating in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), show that the Arctic could be free of ice around the years 2040, and that the transition to a summer ice-free Arctic could happen rapidly, i.e., over the course of a few years. Sixty percent of all global climate models in IPCC also show abrupt transitions to an ice-free Arctic. While they mostly show abrupt transitions, all these models still underestimate the decline in sea-ice extent as compared to satellite record (1979 -2006). Indeed, many of the relevant processes to the observed sea-ice decline occur on small spatial scales - not resolved in current climate models. The main goal of the proposed research program is to develop a high resolution ice-ocean model 1- to improve prediction of future sea ice conditions in both the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), and 2- to use this model to study the response of high latitude ecosystems to changing climate conditions. This research program will build directly on existing field initiatives in which the PI is involved, i.e., the Nansen Amundsen Basin Observing System, the Canadian Basin Observing System, and the Canadian Arctic Buoy Program (led by the PI). This work will provide an improved understanding of the timeline for ice-free conditions in Canadian Waters. This will also place Canada in a unique position to better assess the changing Arctic and how it can affect local marine ecosystem, economic development of the Canadian Arctic, and the well-being of local Inuit populations, whose lifestyle is intimately linked with the presence of ice, e.g. fishing, hunting and transportation.