Modeling the dynamics of land-use and land-cover change: A Complex systems and computational intelligence approach

土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化是一个动态的复杂空间过程，涉及人与环境的相互作用，直接影响我们生物物理系统的质量和分布。联合国环境规划署（United Nations Environment Program）估计，未来10年，全球60%以上的人口将集中在城市地区。不受控制的城市化和发展将增加对自然栖息地、森林、农业用地和可用水资源的压力，从而影响气候变化。监测土地利用价值变化过程，从环境和社会角度了解土地利用价值变化，建立土地变化的空间动态模型，以预测土地利用价值变化的模式和评估其生态后果。本研究的目标是继续开发新的模拟建模方法，以提高对驱动LULC变化过程的潜在相互作用和机制的科学理解和知识。这项工作在理论上属于地理信息科学和系统（GIS）、计算智能、复杂性和土地利用科学学科。具体目标是：(1)开发新一代的计算智能复杂系统模型，能够在多个空间尺度上整合人与环境的相互作用和变化动态；(2)对模型的有效性进行检验和比较，并对模型进行改进，以解决模型在空间决策中的可靠性和可用性问题；(3)将已建立的复杂系统模型从普通的三维表示扩展到更好地描述陆地-空气-水连续体的四维变化过程。总的来说，这个研究项目将逐步开发出更现实的土地利用价值变化模型，能够产生土地变化动态的未来结果情景。随着改进土地利用和土地利用变化模式的发展，科学家和规划人员将能够加深他们对土地变化过程复杂性的理解，并有更好的能力审查结果情景，以便在地方、国家和全球各级进行有效的环境缓解规划、决策和政策评估。

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a dynamic and complex spatial process involving human-environment interactions with direct impact on the quality and distribution of our biophysical system. In the next decade, the United Nations Environment Program estimates more than 60% of the world's population will be concentrated in urban areas. Uncontrolled urbanization and development will increase pressures on natural habitats, forests, agricultural lands, and available water resources thus affecting climate change. There is a vital need to monitor the LULC change processes, understand the changes from environmental and social perspectives, and model the spatial dynamics of land change for forecasting patterns and assessing their ecological consequences. The goal of this research is to continue developing novel simulation modeling approaches that would improve scientific understanding and knowledge about the underlying interactions and mechanisms driving LULC change processes. The work is theoretically situated within the geographic information science and systems (GIS), computational intelligence, complexity and land use sciences disciplines. The specific objectives are to: (1) develop a new generation of computationally intelligent complex system models capable of incorporating human-environment interactions and change dynamics at several spatial scales; (2) test and compare the effectiveness of the developed models and advance them to address model reliability and usability for spatial decision-making; (3) extend the developed complex system models from common three dimensional representation to better depict the change process in a four dimensional land-air-water continuum. Collectively, this research program will incrementally develop more realistic LULC models capable of generating future outcome scenarios of land change dynamics. With the development of enhanced LULC models scientists and planners would be able to deepen their understanding of the complexity of land change processes and be better equipped to examine outcome scenarios towards effective planning, decision-making and policy assessment for environmental mitigation at local, national and global levels.