Modeling Household Dynamics and Land Use

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究使用基于经验的基于主体的模拟方法来研究在更大和不断变化的社会和生物物理环境中移民，家庭资产和土地利用之间的动态相互关系。有三个重点：移民和家庭成员的其他变化；对特定地块用途的选择；连接这两者的是家庭财富的变化，体现在资产的所有权上。反馈是系统的一个组成部分。移徙取决于家庭规模和结构，也取决于资产；移民通过汇款将财富返还给家庭。家庭是否在某块土地上种植作物，种植强度如何，取决于家庭的资产和劳动力供应，以及土地的适宜性等特征；所生产的作物可以满足家庭的生存需要，如果出售，还有可能回报财富。三个模型焦点中的每一个都涉及不同的分析单元。移民和家庭成员的其他变化围绕着个人。土地利用涉及空间参考地块。个体和情节通过家庭活动联系在一起。提出的基于主体的模拟将这些观察和分析单元整合到移民和土地利用的整体和动态描述中，并结合了随时间的反馈。在拟议的研究中，我们将利用泰国南荣的独特数据，对家庭成员的出境移民、回国移民和汇款行为、家庭和地块层面的土地使用情况，以及汇款和土地使用对家庭资产的影响进行实证分析，构建模拟的原型版本。预测真实感将使用2001年和2007年的卫星图像进行评估，作为拟议项目的一部分获得和处理。在评估和验证之后，基于主体的原型模拟将被用于对大洪水、大干旱、经济危机和移民汇款意愿的文化转变的后果进行“实验”，以研究中期（7年）和长期（25年）移民与土地使用之间的关系以及家庭不平等。“概念验证”是该应用程序的目标。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research uses an empirically informed agent-based simulation approach to examine the dynamic interrelationships among migration, household assets, and land use within a larger and changing social and biophysical environment. There are three foci: migration and other changes to household membership; choices about the use of specific land parcels; and connecting these two, changes to household wealth, as expressed in the ownership of assets. Feedbacks are an integral part of the system. Migration depends on household size and structure and also on assets; migration returns wealth to the household via remittances. Whether and with what intensity a household grows crops on a particular plot depend on household assets and labor supply as well as on characteristics of the plot such as its suitability; the crops produced supply the subsistence needs of the household and have the potential to return wealth if sold. Each of the three model foci involves a different unit of analysis. Migration and other changes to household membership revolve around individuals. Land use involves spatially referenced plots of land. Individuals and plots are joined through the activities of households. The proposed agent-based simulation integrates these units of observation and analysis into a holistic and dynamic account of migration and land use, incorporating feedbacks over time. In the proposed research, we will draw on empirical analyses of out- migration, return migration, and remittance behavior of household members, of land use at the household and parcel level, and of the consequences of remittances and land use for household assets using unique data for Nang Rong, Thailand to construct a prototype version of the simulation. Predictive realism will be evaluated using satellite imagery for 2001 and 2007, acquired and processed as part of the proposed project. After it is assessed and validated, the prototype agent-based simulation will be used to conduct "experiments" about the consequences of a major flood, a major drought, an economic crisis, and a cultural shift in the willingness of migrants to send remittances for the relationship between migration and land use and for household inequality in the medium (7 years) and long run (25 years). "Proof of concept" is the goal of the application.