Modeling Household Dynamics and Land Use

描述(由申请人提供)：拟议的研究使用基于经验的基于代理的模拟方法来研究在更大和不断变化的社会和生物物理环境中移民、家庭资产和土地利用之间的动态相互关系。有三个重点：移民和家庭成员的其他变化；关于使用特定地块的选择；以及将这两者联系起来的家庭财富的变化，如资产所有权所示。反馈是系统不可分割的一部分。移徙取决于家庭规模和结构，也取决于资产；移徙通过汇款将财富返还给家庭。家庭是否在特定的地块上种植农作物以及种植的强度取决于家庭资产和劳动力供应，以及地块的特征，如适宜性；生产的作物满足家庭的生存需求，如果出售，有可能返还财富。三个模型焦点中的每一个都涉及不同的分析单位。移民和家庭成员资格的其他变化都围绕着个人。土地利用涉及空间参考的地块。个人和地块通过家庭活动联系在一起。拟议的基于代理的模拟将这些观察和分析单元整合到一个关于移民和土地使用的整体和动态账户中，并纳入随时间推移的反馈。在拟议的研究中，我们将利用泰国南荣的独特数据，对家庭成员的外迁、回迁和汇款行为、家庭和宗地层面的土地利用以及汇款和土地利用对家庭资产的影响进行实证分析，以构建模拟的原型版本。将使用2001年和2007年的卫星图像对预测现实主义进行评估，这些图像是作为拟议项目的一部分获得和处理的。在评估和验证之后，将使用基于代理的原型模拟来进行关于大洪水、大干旱、经济危机以及移民在中期(7年)和长期(25年)为移民和土地利用之间的关系以及家庭不平等而汇款意愿的文化转变的“实验”。“概念证明”是应用程序的目标。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research uses an empirically informed agent-based simulation approach to examine the dynamic interrelationships among migration, household assets, and land use within a larger and changing social and biophysical environment. There are three foci: migration and other changes to household membership; choices about the use of specific land parcels; and connecting these two, changes to household wealth, as expressed in the ownership of assets. Feedbacks are an integral part of the system. Migration depends on household size and structure and also on assets; migration returns wealth to the household via remittances. Whether and with what intensity a household grows crops on a particular plot depend on household assets and labor supply as well as on characteristics of the plot such as its suitability; the crops produced supply the subsistence needs of the household and have the potential to return wealth if sold. Each of the three model foci involves a different unit of analysis. Migration and other changes to household membership revolve around individuals. Land use involves spatially referenced plots of land. Individuals and plots are joined through the activities of households. The proposed agent-based simulation integrates these units of observation and analysis into a holistic and dynamic account of migration and land use, incorporating feedbacks over time. In the proposed research, we will draw on empirical analyses of out- migration, return migration, and remittance behavior of household members, of land use at the household and parcel level, and of the consequences of remittances and land use for household assets using unique data for Nang Rong, Thailand to construct a prototype version of the simulation. Predictive realism will be evaluated using satellite imagery for 2001 and 2007, acquired and processed as part of the proposed project. After it is assessed and validated, the prototype agent-based simulation will be used to conduct "experiments" about the consequences of a major flood, a major drought, an economic crisis, and a cultural shift in the willingness of migrants to send remittances for the relationship between migration and land use and for household inequality in the medium (7 years) and long run (25 years). "Proof of concept" is the goal of the application.