Modeling Household Dynamics and Land Use

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究采用了基于经验的代理人的模拟方法，以检查迁移，家庭资产和土地利用之间的动态相互关系，在一个更大的和不断变化的社会和生物物理环境。有三个焦点：移徙和家庭成员的其他变化;对使用特定地块的选择;以及将这两者联系起来的家庭财富的变化，如资产所有权。反馈是系统的一个组成部分。移徙取决于家庭规模和结构，也取决于资产;移徙通过汇款将财富返还给家庭。一个家庭是否在一块土地上种植作物以及种植的密度取决于家庭的资产和劳动力供应以及土地的特点，如土地的适宜性;生产的作物满足家庭的生存需要，如果出售，有可能返回财富。三个模型焦点中的每一个都涉及不同的分析单元。移徙和家庭成员的其他变化是以个人为中心的。土地使用涉及有空间参照的地块。个人和地块通过家庭活动结合在一起。拟议的基于代理人的模拟集成这些单位的观察和分析到一个整体和动态的帐户的移民和土地使用，随着时间的推移，纳入反馈。在拟议的研究中，我们将借鉴经验分析的迁出，回移，汇款行为的家庭成员，土地使用在家庭和地块的水平，以及汇款和土地使用的家庭资产的后果，使用独特的数据，泰国廊荣，构建一个原型版本的模拟。将利用作为拟议项目的一部分而获得和处理的2001年和2007年卫星图像对预测的现实性进行评价。经过评估和验证后，基于代理人的原型模拟将被用来进行“实验”，研究大洪水、大干旱、经济危机以及移民汇款意愿的文化转变对移民与土地使用之间的关系以及中长期（7年）和长期（25年）家庭不平等的影响。“概念验证”是应用程序的目标。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research uses an empirically informed agent-based simulation approach to examine the dynamic interrelationships among migration, household assets, and land use within a larger and changing social and biophysical environment. There are three foci: migration and other changes to household membership; choices about the use of specific land parcels; and connecting these two, changes to household wealth, as expressed in the ownership of assets. Feedbacks are an integral part of the system. Migration depends on household size and structure and also on assets; migration returns wealth to the household via remittances. Whether and with what intensity a household grows crops on a particular plot depend on household assets and labor supply as well as on characteristics of the plot such as its suitability; the crops produced supply the subsistence needs of the household and have the potential to return wealth if sold. Each of the three model foci involves a different unit of analysis. Migration and other changes to household membership revolve around individuals. Land use involves spatially referenced plots of land. Individuals and plots are joined through the activities of households. The proposed agent-based simulation integrates these units of observation and analysis into a holistic and dynamic account of migration and land use, incorporating feedbacks over time. In the proposed research, we will draw on empirical analyses of out- migration, return migration, and remittance behavior of household members, of land use at the household and parcel level, and of the consequences of remittances and land use for household assets using unique data for Nang Rong, Thailand to construct a prototype version of the simulation. Predictive realism will be evaluated using satellite imagery for 2001 and 2007, acquired and processed as part of the proposed project. After it is assessed and validated, the prototype agent-based simulation will be used to conduct "experiments" about the consequences of a major flood, a major drought, an economic crisis, and a cultural shift in the willingness of migrants to send remittances for the relationship between migration and land use and for household inequality in the medium (7 years) and long run (25 years). "Proof of concept" is the goal of the application.