Modeling Household Dynamics and Land Use

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed research uses an empirically informed agent-based simulation approach to examine the dynamic interrelationships among migration, household assets, and land use within a larger and changing social and biophysical environment. There are three foci: migration and other changes to household membership; choices about the use of specific land parcels; and connecting these two, changes to household wealth, as expressed in the ownership of assets. Feedbacks are an integral part of the system. Migration depends on household size and structure and also on assets; migration returns wealth to the household via remittances. Whether and with what intensity a household grows crops on a particular plot depend on household assets and labor supply as well as on characteristics of the plot such as its suitability; the crops produced supply the subsistence needs of the household and have the potential to return wealth if sold. Each of the three model foci involves a different unit of analysis. Migration and other changes to household membership revolve around individuals. Land use involves spatially referenced plots of land. Individuals and plots are joined through the activities of households. The proposed agent-based simulation integrates these units of observation and analysis into a holistic and dynamic account of migration and land use, incorporating feedbacks over time. In the proposed research, we will draw on empirical analyses of out- migration, return migration, and remittance behavior of household members, of land use at the household and parcel level, and of the consequences of remittances and land use for household assets using unique data for Nang Rong, Thailand to construct a prototype version of the simulation. Predictive realism will be evaluated using satellite imagery for 2001 and 2007, acquired and processed as part of the proposed project. After it is assessed and validated, the prototype agent-based simulation will be used to conduct "experiments" about the consequences of a major flood, a major drought, an economic crisis, and a cultural shift in the willingness of migrants to send remittances for the relationship between migration and land use and for household inequality in the medium (7 years) and long run (25 years). "Proof of concept" is the goal of the application.