Developing urban land use microsimulation models: an application to Hamilton, Ontario

近年来，人们对开发和使用大规模综合交通和土地利用模型(ITLUM)来支持城市规划过程越来越感兴趣。这类模型是复杂的模拟工具，通常用于评估拟议的城市土地使用和/或交通项目的长期影响。为了增强这些模型的预测能力，最近的想法要求采用一种微观方法，将个人、家庭、公司和开发商确定为分析单位。人们的共识似乎是，这种做法将导致行为健全、政策敏感、能够促进城市地区可持续做法的分类(也称为微观模拟)模式。为了响应这一范式，拟议的研究将寻求开发一个可操作的城市土地利用微观模拟模型。拟议的开发环境将以“ArcGIS”地理信息系统的组件为基础，该系统为维护和管理大型空间数据库提供最先进的开发工具。统一建模语言将促进开发面向对象的地理数据库数据模型，作为微观模拟模型的一部分。开发的第一阶段将涉及为研究区建立家庭和商业机构的综合人口。第二阶段需要设计和发展一个综合框架，其中包括人口统计、固定人口统计、土地供应和土地市场模块。前两个模块将微观模拟家庭结构、居住流动性的变化，以及就公司而言，由于公司在城市中的倒闭、成立、增长/衰落和搬迁而发生的公司和就业空间分布的变化。第三个模块将按土地用途类型模拟土地开发过程，第四个模块将汇集土地供求以模拟土地市场。这项研究的新颖性在于试图开发一种可操作的、真正基于主体的土地利用模式，该模式全面、稳健、对政策敏感、易于扩展，并可转移到其他城市。

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in developing and using large-scale integrated Transport and Land use Models (ITLUMs) to support the planning process in cities. Such models are complex simulation tools normally used to evaluate the long-term repercussions of proposed urban land-use and/or transport projects. To enhance the predictive ability of these models, recent thinking calls for adopting a micro approach that identifies individual persons, households, firms and developers as the units of analysis. The consensus seems to be that such an approach will lead to disaggregated (also known as microsimulation) models that are behaviorally sound and policy sensitive, capable of promoting sustainable practices in urban areas. In response to this paradigm, the proposed research will seek to develop an operational urban land use microsimulation model. The proposed development environment will be based on components from the "ArcGIS" Geographic Information System, which provides state-of-the-art development tools for maintaining and managing large spatial databases. The unified modeling language (UML) will facilitate the development of object-oriented geodatabase data models as part of the microsimulation models. The first stage of development will involve the creation of synthetic populations of households and business establishments for the study area. The second stage entails the design and development of an integrated framework that encompasses population demographic, firm demographic, land supply and land market modules. The first two modules will microsimulate changes in household structure, residential mobility, and with respect to firms, changes occurring in the spatial distribution of firms and jobs because of failure, establishment, growth/decline and relocation of firms in the city. The third module will simulate the land development process by type of land use, while the fourth will bring together supply and demand for land to simulate the land market. The novelty of the proposed research is the attempt to develop an operational and truly agent-based land use model that is comprehensive, robust, policy sensitive, easily expandable and transferable to other cities.