Developing urban land use microsimulation models: an application to Hamilton, Ontario

近年来，人们对开发和使用大规模综合运输和土地利用模型（ITLUMs）来支持城市规划过程的兴趣日益浓厚。这些模型是复杂的模拟工具，通常用于评估拟议的城市土地使用和/或运输项目的长期影响。为了提高这些模型的预测能力，最近的想法要求采用一种微观方法，将个人、家庭、公司和开发人员识别为分析单元。共识似乎是，这种方法将导致分解（也称为微观模拟）模式，这些模式行为健全，对政策敏感，能够促进城市地区的可持续做法。针对这一范式，拟议的研究将寻求开发一个可操作的城市土地利用微观模拟模型。拟议的开发环境将以“ArcGIS”地理信息系统的组件为基础，该系统为维护和管理大型空间数据库提供最先进的开发工具。统一建模语言（UML）将促进面向对象地理数据库数据模型作为微仿真模型的一部分的开发。发展的第一阶段将涉及为研究地区建立家庭和商业机构的综合人口。第二阶段需要设计和发展一个综合框架，其中包括人口、固定人口、土地供应和土地市场模块。前两个模块将微观模拟家庭结构、住宅流动性的变化，以及关于公司的变化，由于公司在城市中的失败、建立、增长/衰落和搬迁，公司和工作的空间分布发生了变化。第三个模块将按土地用途类型模拟土地开发过程，而第四个模块将结合土地的供求来模拟土地市场。拟议研究的新颖之处在于，它试图开发一种可操作的、真正基于主体的土地利用模型，这种模型全面、稳健、对政策敏感、易于扩展并可转移到其他城市。

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in developing and using large-scale integrated Transport and Land use Models (ITLUMs) to support the planning process in cities. Such models are complex simulation tools normally used to evaluate the long-term repercussions of proposed urban land-use and/or transport projects. To enhance the predictive ability of these models, recent thinking calls for adopting a micro approach that identifies individual persons, households, firms and developers as the units of analysis. The consensus seems to be that such an approach will lead to disaggregated (also known as microsimulation) models that are behaviorally sound and policy sensitive, capable of promoting sustainable practices in urban areas. In response to this paradigm, the proposed research will seek to develop an operational urban land use microsimulation model. The proposed development environment will be based on components from the "ArcGIS" Geographic Information System, which provides state-of-the-art development tools for maintaining and managing large spatial databases. The unified modeling language (UML) will facilitate the development of object-oriented geodatabase data models as part of the microsimulation models. The first stage of development will involve the creation of synthetic populations of households and business establishments for the study area. The second stage entails the design and development of an integrated framework that encompasses population demographic, firm demographic, land supply and land market modules. The first two modules will microsimulate changes in household structure, residential mobility, and with respect to firms, changes occurring in the spatial distribution of firms and jobs because of failure, establishment, growth/decline and relocation of firms in the city. The third module will simulate the land development process by type of land use, while the fourth will bring together supply and demand for land to simulate the land market. The novelty of the proposed research is the attempt to develop an operational and truly agent-based land use model that is comprehensive, robust, policy sensitive, easily expandable and transferable to other cities.