"Developing Longitudinal Bottom-up Models of Land use, Transport and Energy Use"

“开发土地利用、交通和能源利用的纵向自下而上模型”

• 批准号: 402296-2012
• 负责人: Habib, Muhammad
• 金额: $ 1.68万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2013-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=529510
• 关键词: Developing; Longitudinal; Bottom; up; Models

This Discovery Grant proposal supports a long term research program at Dalhousie University in developing dynamic urban systems models by extending methods for longitudinal investigation of household-level location processes, automobile fleet choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Households' location characteristics and travel behaviours are strongly related to energy consumption. The proposed research will extend our fundamental understanding of how households' location choice, mobility tool ownership, commuting behaviour and energy use evolve over life courses. Exploring continuity and history dependency in these critical choice and consumption processes is vital for developing improved dynamic bottom-up urban models. The research will focus specifically on two areas: longitudinal modelling of households' repeated choices, and the development of bottom-up integrated urban models. A multi-wave longitudinal data collection program will be employed for recording households' repeated long term choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Successful adaptation of the applicant's current approach of repeated choice modelling for dealing with multi-dimensional choice processes will greatly improve behavioural realism and the demand forecasting ability of microsimulation-based integrated models. The research program will also investigate and model relationships between choice and consumption processes, utilizing follow up panel observations of vehicle utilization and energy use. These spatially and temporally disaggregate models will be used to develop a theoretically consistent bottom-up integrated modelling framework. A prototype microsimulation tool will be developed and tested for Halifax Metropolitan Area, Nova Scotia. One Ph.D. and two masters student will be trained through hands-on training in panel data collection, multivariate analysis, econometric modelling and microsimulation. Research involvement of a combination of urban planning and civil engineering students proposed in this program will offer an interdisciplinary research environment, fostering innovative approaches to the development of integrated models and their application for evaluating transportation and land use policies.

这项Discovery Grant建议支持Dalhousie University的一项长期研究计划，通过扩展方法来开发动态的城市系统模型，用于纵向调查家庭级别的位置过程，汽车车队的选择，车辆利用率和能源利用。家庭的位置特征和旅行行为与能源消耗密切相关。拟议的研究将扩展我们对家庭选择，移动工具所有权，通勤行为和能源使用如何发展的基本理解。在这些关键选择和消费过程中探索连续性和历史依赖性对于开发改进动态自下而上的城市模型至关重要。这项研究将专门针对两个领域：家庭重复选择的纵向建模以及自下而上的综合城市模型的发展。将采用多波纵向数据收集计划来记录家庭的一再选择，车辆利用和能源使用。成功适应了申请人当前的重复选择模型来处理多维选择过程的方法，将大大改善行为现实主义和基于微模拟的集成模型的需求预测能力。研究计划还将研究选择和消费过程之间的关系，并利用车辆利用和能源使用的后续面板观察。这些在空间和时间上分类模型将用于开发理论上一致的自下而上的集成建模框架。将开发和测试一个原型的微模拟工具，并为新斯科舍省哈利法克斯大都市地区进行测试。一位博士两名硕士学生将通过小组数据收集，多元分析，计量经济学建模和微仿真的动手培训进行培训。在该计划中提出的城市规划和土木工程专业学生结合的研究参与将提供跨学科的研究环境，从而促进创新的方法来开发综合模型及其在评估运输和土地利用政策中的应用。