"Developing Longitudinal Bottom-up Models of Land use, Transport and Energy Use"

这项发现基金提案支持达尔豪斯大学的一个长期研究项目，通过扩展家庭层面定位过程、车队选择、车辆使用和能源使用的纵向调查方法，开发动态城市系统模型。家庭的区位特征和出行行为与能源消耗密切相关。拟议的研究将扩展我们对家庭位置选择、移动工具所有权、通勤行为和能源使用在生命历程中如何演变的基本理解。探索这些关键选择和消费过程中的连续性和历史依赖性对于开发改进的动态自下而上的城市模型至关重要。研究将集中在两个方面：家庭重复选择的纵向建模和自下而上的综合城市模型的发展。将采用多波纵向数据收集计划，记录家庭的重复长期选择、车辆使用和能源使用情况。成功地适应申请人目前的重复选择建模方法来处理多维选择过程，将大大提高基于微仿真的集成模型的行为现实性和需求预测能力。该研究项目还将调查和模拟选择和消费过程之间的关系，利用车辆使用和能源使用的后续面板观察。这些空间和时间分解模型将用于开发一个理论上一致的自下而上的集成建模框架。将为新斯科舍省哈利法克斯大都会区开发和测试一个原型微模拟工具。一名博士和两名硕士研究生将通过面板数据收集、多元分析、计量经济建模和微观模拟的实践培训。城市规划和土木工程专业学生的研究将提供一个跨学科的研究环境，促进综合模型开发的创新方法，并将其应用于评估交通和土地使用政策。

This Discovery Grant proposal supports a long term research program at Dalhousie University in developing dynamic urban systems models by extending methods for longitudinal investigation of household-level location processes, automobile fleet choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Households' location characteristics and travel behaviours are strongly related to energy consumption. The proposed research will extend our fundamental understanding of how households' location choice, mobility tool ownership, commuting behaviour and energy use evolve over life courses. Exploring continuity and history dependency in these critical choice and consumption processes is vital for developing improved dynamic bottom-up urban models. The research will focus specifically on two areas: longitudinal modelling of households' repeated choices, and the development of bottom-up integrated urban models. A multi-wave longitudinal data collection program will be employed for recording households' repeated long term choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Successful adaptation of the applicant's current approach of repeated choice modelling for dealing with multi-dimensional choice processes will greatly improve behavioural realism and the demand forecasting ability of microsimulation-based integrated models. The research program will also investigate and model relationships between choice and consumption processes, utilizing follow up panel observations of vehicle utilization and energy use. These spatially and temporally disaggregate models will be used to develop a theoretically consistent bottom-up integrated modelling framework. A prototype microsimulation tool will be developed and tested for Halifax Metropolitan Area, Nova Scotia. One Ph.D. and two masters student will be trained through hands-on training in panel data collection, multivariate analysis, econometric modelling and microsimulation. Research involvement of a combination of urban planning and civil engineering students proposed in this program will offer an interdisciplinary research environment, fostering innovative approaches to the development of integrated models and their application for evaluating transportation and land use policies.