"Developing Longitudinal Bottom-up Models of Land use, Transport and Energy Use"

这项发现补助金提案支持达尔豪西大学的一项长期研究计划，通过扩展家庭层面位置过程、汽车车队选择、车辆利用和能源使用的纵向调查方法，开发动态城市系统模型。家庭的位置特征和出行行为与能源消费密切相关。拟议的研究将扩展我们对家庭的位置选择，移动工具所有权，通勤行为和能源使用如何在生命历程中演变的基本理解。探索这些关键的选择和消费过程中的连续性和历史依赖性对于开发改进的动态自下而上的城市模型至关重要。研究将具体侧重于两个领域：家庭重复选择的纵向模型，以及自下而上的综合城市模型的开发。将采用多波纵向数据收集程序，记录家庭的重复长期选择，车辆使用和能源使用。成功地适应申请人目前的做法，重复选择建模处理多维选择过程将大大提高行为现实主义和需求预测能力的微观模拟为基础的综合模型。该研究计划还将调查和模型之间的选择和消费过程的关系，利用车辆利用率和能源使用的后续面板观察。这些在空间和时间上分列的模型将用于制定一个理论上一致的自下而上的综合建模框架。将为新斯科舍省的哈利法克斯大都会区开发和测试一个原型微观模拟工具。一个博士两名硕士生将接受面板数据收集、多元分析、计量经济模型和微观模拟方面的实践培训。该计划中提出的城市规划和土木工程学生的研究参与将提供一个跨学科的研究环境，促进创新方法来开发综合模型及其应用，以评估交通和土地使用政策。

This Discovery Grant proposal supports a long term research program at Dalhousie University in developing dynamic urban systems models by extending methods for longitudinal investigation of household-level location processes, automobile fleet choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Households' location characteristics and travel behaviours are strongly related to energy consumption. The proposed research will extend our fundamental understanding of how households' location choice, mobility tool ownership, commuting behaviour and energy use evolve over life courses. Exploring continuity and history dependency in these critical choice and consumption processes is vital for developing improved dynamic bottom-up urban models. The research will focus specifically on two areas: longitudinal modelling of households' repeated choices, and the development of bottom-up integrated urban models. A multi-wave longitudinal data collection program will be employed for recording households' repeated long term choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Successful adaptation of the applicant's current approach of repeated choice modelling for dealing with multi-dimensional choice processes will greatly improve behavioural realism and the demand forecasting ability of microsimulation-based integrated models. The research program will also investigate and model relationships between choice and consumption processes, utilizing follow up panel observations of vehicle utilization and energy use. These spatially and temporally disaggregate models will be used to develop a theoretically consistent bottom-up integrated modelling framework. A prototype microsimulation tool will be developed and tested for Halifax Metropolitan Area, Nova Scotia. One Ph.D. and two masters student will be trained through hands-on training in panel data collection, multivariate analysis, econometric modelling and microsimulation. Research involvement of a combination of urban planning and civil engineering students proposed in this program will offer an interdisciplinary research environment, fostering innovative approaches to the development of integrated models and their application for evaluating transportation and land use policies.