"Developing Longitudinal Bottom-up Models of Land use, Transport and Energy Use"

这项探索助学金计划支持达尔豪西大学的一项长期研究计划，该计划通过扩展对家庭层面的选址过程、车队选择、车辆利用和能源使用进行纵向调查的方法，开发动态城市系统模型。家庭的地理位置特征和出行行为与能源消耗密切相关。这项拟议的研究将扩展我们对家庭的位置选择、移动工具所有权、通勤行为和能源使用在生命过程中如何演变的基本理解。探索这些关键选择和消费过程中的连续性和历史依赖性，对于开发改进的动态自下而上的城市模型至关重要。这项研究将具体集中在两个领域：对家庭重复选择的纵向建模，以及自下而上综合城市模型的发展。多波纵向数据收集计划将用于记录家庭重复的长期选择、车辆使用和能源使用。成功采用申请人目前的重复选择建模方法来处理多维选择过程，将极大地提高行为现实主义和基于微观模拟的综合模型的需求预测能力。该研究计划还将利用后续小组对车辆利用率和能源使用的观察，调查选择和消费过程之间的关系并建立模型。这些空间和时间分解模型将被用来开发理论上一致的自下而上的综合建模框架。将为新斯科舍省的哈利法克斯大都市区开发和测试一个原型微观模拟工具。一名博士和两名硕士研究生将接受小组数据收集、多元分析、计量经济模型和微观模拟方面的实践培训。该项目建议城市规划和土木工程专业的学生参与研究，将提供一个跨学科的研究环境，培养开发综合模型的创新方法，并将其应用于评估交通和土地利用政策。

This Discovery Grant proposal supports a long term research program at Dalhousie University in developing dynamic urban systems models by extending methods for longitudinal investigation of household-level location processes, automobile fleet choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Households' location characteristics and travel behaviours are strongly related to energy consumption. The proposed research will extend our fundamental understanding of how households' location choice, mobility tool ownership, commuting behaviour and energy use evolve over life courses. Exploring continuity and history dependency in these critical choice and consumption processes is vital for developing improved dynamic bottom-up urban models. The research will focus specifically on two areas: longitudinal modelling of households' repeated choices, and the development of bottom-up integrated urban models. A multi-wave longitudinal data collection program will be employed for recording households' repeated long term choices, vehicle utilization and energy use. Successful adaptation of the applicant's current approach of repeated choice modelling for dealing with multi-dimensional choice processes will greatly improve behavioural realism and the demand forecasting ability of microsimulation-based integrated models. The research program will also investigate and model relationships between choice and consumption processes, utilizing follow up panel observations of vehicle utilization and energy use. These spatially and temporally disaggregate models will be used to develop a theoretically consistent bottom-up integrated modelling framework. A prototype microsimulation tool will be developed and tested for Halifax Metropolitan Area, Nova Scotia. One Ph.D. and two masters student will be trained through hands-on training in panel data collection, multivariate analysis, econometric modelling and microsimulation. Research involvement of a combination of urban planning and civil engineering students proposed in this program will offer an interdisciplinary research environment, fostering innovative approaches to the development of integrated models and their application for evaluating transportation and land use policies.