Development of a Multi-scale, Integrated Microsimulation Model of Urban Systems

城市系统多尺度综合微观模拟模型的开发

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06756
• 负责人: Habib, Muhammad
• 金额: $ 2.62万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=652771
• 关键词: Development; Multi; scale; Integrated; Microsimulation

This NSERC Discovery Grant proposal supports a long-term research program at Dalhousie University in developing an integrated urban modelling system that will provide a theoretical and empirical foundation for multi-scale integration of land use and transport models. Long-term household location choices influence short-term travel choices and vice versa. There is a need to better understand these behavioural linkages and develop decision-support tools for transportation engineers to facilitate integrated planning for land use and transportation system. The proposed research will focus on two thematic areas: 1) developing micro-level econometric models that explore how household decision processes interact with the opportunities that the transportation system offers, and 2) building agent-based, microsimulation tools for forecasting and policy scenario testing. By utilizing CFI-sponsored research infrastructure, the proposed program will develop a microsimulation toolkit that simulates the evolution of urban systems, from residential location choice to vehicle allocation for daily trips, from life-stage transitions to adjustments in activity agenda and from year-by-year location patterns to second-by-second traffic simulation. Specifically, the proposed research will offer advanced analytical methods to develop link models, for instance linkages between longitudinal vehicle fleet ownership and vehicle allocation for daily travel tours. Based on the relationships identified in micro-models, the research will develop a prototype simulation tool using a 100% synthetic population of Halifax, Canada to predict household location, vehicle utilization and travel patterns for a thirty-year period (2006-2036). The granularity and systems interactions that the proposed large-scale microsimulation tool exhibits would enable testing of newer policy interventions, for instance the impacts of carbon pricing strategies on residential location choices or daily travel agendas. The proposed research program will train two PhD students, two Masters students and a post-doctoral fellow in a research laboratory that draws graduate students from the civil engineering and planning disciplines. The collaborative, multidisciplinary research environment will foster innovative approaches to the development of integrated urban models and their application for evaluating complex transport and land use policies that Canadian communities need to guide sustainable urban development.

这项NSERC Discovery Grant提案支持Dalhousie University的一项长期研究计划，以开发一个综合的城市建模系统，该系统将为土地使用和运输模型的多规模整合提供理论和经验的基础。长期家庭位置选择会影响短期旅行选择，反之亦然。有必要更好地了解这些行为联系，并为运输工程师开发决策支持工具，以促进土地使用和运输系统的综合计划。拟议的研究将重点放在两个主题领域：1）开发微级计量经济学模型，以探讨家庭决策过程如何与运输系统提供的机会相互作用，以及2）基于建筑物的代理，基于建筑物的微型仿真工具，用于预测和政策场景测试。通过利用CFI赞助的研究基础设施，该计划将开发一个微模拟工具包，该工具包模拟城市系统的演变，从住宅位置选择到每日旅行的车辆分配，从生活阶段过渡到活动议程的调整，从年度逐年地位置模式到第二秒的交通流量模拟。具体而言，拟议的研究将提供高级分析方法来开发链接模型，例如纵向车队所有权与每日旅行旅行的车辆分配之间的联系。根据微型模型中确定的关系，该研究将使用加拿大哈利法克斯（Halifax）的100％合成人口开发一种原型模拟工具，以预测30年期（2006 - 2036年）的家庭位置，车辆利用和旅行模式。拟议的大规模微模拟工具所展示的粒度和系统相互作用将有助于测试更新的政策干预措施，例如碳定价策略对住宅位置选择或日常旅行议程的影响。拟议的研究计划将培训两名博士生，两名硕士学生和一名研究实验室的博士后研究员，该研究实验室吸引了土木工程和计划学科的研究生。合作的多学科研究环境将促进创新的方法来开发综合城市模型及其在评估加拿大社区需要指导可持续城市发展所需的复杂运输和土地使用政策的应用中。