Development of a Multi-scale, Integrated Microsimulation Model of Urban Systems

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This NSERC Discovery Grant proposal supports a long-term research program at Dalhousie University in developing an integrated urban modelling system that will provide a theoretical and empirical foundation for multi-scale integration of land use and transport models. Long-term household location choices influence short-term travel choices and vice versa. There is a need to better understand these behavioural linkages and develop decision-support tools for transportation engineers to facilitate integrated planning for land use and transportation system. The proposed research will focus on two thematic areas: 1) developing micro-level econometric models that explore how household decision processes interact with the opportunities that the transportation system offers, and 2) building agent-based, microsimulation tools for forecasting and policy scenario testing. By utilizing CFI-sponsored research infrastructure, the proposed program will develop a microsimulation toolkit that simulates the evolution of urban systems, from residential location choice to vehicle allocation for daily trips, from life-stage transitions to adjustments in activity agenda and from year-by-year location patterns to second-by-second traffic simulation. Specifically, the proposed research will offer advanced analytical methods to develop link models, for instance linkages between longitudinal vehicle fleet ownership and vehicle allocation for daily travel tours. Based on the relationships identified in micro-models, the research will develop a prototype simulation tool using a 100% synthetic population of Halifax, Canada to predict household location, vehicle utilization and travel patterns for a thirty-year period (2006-2036). The granularity and systems interactions that the proposed large-scale microsimulation tool exhibits would enable testing of newer policy interventions, for instance the impacts of carbon pricing strategies on residential location choices or daily travel agendas. The proposed research program will train two PhD students, two Masters students and a post-doctoral fellow in a research laboratory that draws graduate students from the civil engineering and planning disciplines. The collaborative, multidisciplinary research environment will foster innovative approaches to the development of integrated urban models and their application for evaluating complex transport and land use policies that Canadian communities need to guide sustainable urban development.