Accounting for Complexity and Adaptivity in Ecology and Its Applications

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Ecosystems are comprised of many components (animals, plants, etc.) that interact with each other through behaviours that respond to experience—that is, they are ‘complex adaptive systems’. This concept sounds simple, but three aspects demand substantially more focus in research and practice of ecology and evolutionary biology: (1) how current outputs from ecological models hide many uncertainties and assumptions, impeding interdisciplinary research and the use of science in decision-making; (2) how the multiplicity of impacts on ecosystems hampers knowledge about any one impact, and statistical power may be much less than routinely assumed in research and management; and (3) how the workings of ecosystems depends upon explicit representation of how behaviours of animals, plants, and humans change through learning and evolution, which requires targeted integration of ecological, evolutionary, and social contexts. In this project, I will work with students and collaborators to advance our understanding and application of these points through mathematical and computational modeling, informed by empirical analysis and the literature. (1) We will investigate how model design decisions can change model outputs, perhaps even resulting in contradictory findings, for example about the impacts of sea otters on kelp-forest and human communities (based on data from extensive research on the west coast of Vancouver Island). (2) We will evaluate how multiple impacts, if insufficiently assessed, might impact the power of ecological studies and undermine the effectiveness of management, e.g., of species at risk (based on data from coastal British Columbia and New Zealand). (3) We will assess how (a) the presence of natural enemies can impede a pest’s evolution of resistance to pesticides (in both agricultural and aquacultural systems); and (b) observed age-related changes in the preferences and decisions of human harvesters might affect the sustainability of a resource, in complex ways (with a case study from coastal fisheries in Chile). Through these projects, my lab group will continue to work in a diversity of settings and apply a suite of analytical approaches. This diversity complements the approaches of project collaborators to provide a richly interdisciplinary setting for innovation and training of students and postdoctoral fellows. Through collaborative and consulting relationships with a wide variety of organizations and agencies, we will turn this innovation in understanding into enhancement of management and policy for fisheries and oceans, species at risk, and environmental assessment. Coupled with communication and engagement efforts informed by the Leopold Leadership program and other trainings, this research will yield better safeguarding for ecosystems and the services they supply Canadians and people everywhere.