Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity in the Context of System Transformation

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Globally, ecosystems are changing as a result of human influences. Changing ecosystems may cross thresholds; in such situations, change may be sudden and rapid rather than gradual, and it may result in a persistent change in ecosystem state. Yet, environmental management efforts frequently ignore potential thresholds by assuming smooth, gradual, or reversible changes in both biodiversity and the processes by which nature benefits people (ecosystem services). This proposal seeks to characterize biodiversity and ecosystem-service change across thresholds, in the contexts of (1) coastal ecosystems, (2) agricultural intensification and climate change, and (3) evolution of pesticide resistance.***In this project, I will work with students and collaborators to advance our understanding and application of state changes across thresholds through modeling and data analysis involving three empirical systems. (1) We will investigate how regional-scale ecosystems and the services they provide change during system transformation on the west coast of Vancouver Island, from large expanses of `urchin barrens' to sea otter/kelp-dominated ecosystems, using an extensive new data set and ecosystem model. (2) We will investigate how climate change and land-use change interact to trigger rapid shifts in bird communities and ecosystem services in Costa Rica; we will also ask what land-use and land-management changes might mitigate these transformations. (3) We will assess how the presence and abundance of natural predators of pests might prevent sudden shifts in agricultural and aquacultural systems to persistent states of pesticide resistance.****The diversity of my lab group's analytical approaches complements those of our project collaborators to provide a richly interdisciplinary setting for innovation and training of students and postdoctoral fellows. Through collaborative and consulting relationships with a wide variety of organizations and agencies, we will relate our research results to enhanced management and policy for fisheries and oceans, species at risk, pest control, and environmental assessment. Coupled with communication and engagement efforts informed by the Leopold Leadership program and other training, this research will contribute to better safeguards for ecosystems and the services they supply to Canadians and people everywhere.**