Multi-model approaches for technology assessment, energy and environmental policies at different decision and spatial levels

与我在GERAD(E2G)能源和环境团队的研究一致，我的目标是为不同的决策和空间层面开发分析工具，以解决能源出口、与新兴可再生能源相关的分散能源生产、智能电网业务发展计划、与能源安全相关的能源储存能力、区域供暖、道路交通电气化、高峰负荷管理、交通运输、住宅、商业和工业领域的能源效率等问题。·提高时代-加拿大模式的建模能力(2009-2013)(建立在过去项目的基础上；努力30%)。它是加拿大13个省和地区的详细技术经济模型(动态线性优化)。该模型非常适合于技术评估、温室气体减排战略的技术经济影响、不同能源和环境政策的战略评估等。该模型现已准备好投入商业使用。新的问题正在出现。需要参考能源系统的实物表示(石油或可再生资源等能源储备、能源生产基础设施、能源走廊和相关风险评估、包括电信基础设施在内的智能电网、工业位置、城市等)。因此，将TIMES-Canada模型与地理信息系统(GIS)联系起来将改善政策分析或公司战略的分析能力(例如，距离、通过使用遥感和地理数据库确定的实际限制)。·在大都市地区一级或类似的区域实体制定多模式综合能源和环境规划办法(案例研究：蒙特利尔大都会社区)(新开发；努力50%)。这些社区将不得不为缓解和适应气候变化制定计划。该方法基于仿真模型与优化模型的耦合，利用开源软件OSeMOsys(Open Source Energy Model System)平台对参考能源系统进行长期技术经济优化管理(模型家族与时间模型相同)。将选择开源的地理信息系统软件来表示、分析数据和交流空间模拟建模结果，即使在Web上也是如此。多标准决策援助平台，如Decision Deck，提供了谈判气候缓解和适应情景的机会。许多不确定因素都与后一个问题有关。它们将通过已经开发的随机和稳健的规划方法进行管理，这些方法将被适应并扩展到我们的问题制定。·政策分析对利益攸关方的参与越来越开放，即使在早期阶段也是如此(边缘开发；努力20%)。利益相关者之间的谈判将从网上决策支持系统中获益良多。在能源和环境政策分析方面，需要有相关利益攸关方参与的审议空间。这些网络界面对整合规划、战略评估、参与和谈判进程和工具提出了新的问题，包括强大的分析和沟通能力。我们将进一步开发多标准决策援助程序和工具，以纳入上述模式发展的贡献。我们还将改进与不同决策和空间级别有关的标准和指标之间的一致性，以及决策背景的动态演变和不确定性处理(随机多准则、稳健性分析)。

In keeping with my research in the Energy and Environment team at GERAD (E2G) whom I am co-director, my objective is to develop analytical tools for different decision and spatial levels to address issues such as energy exportation, decentralized energy production related to emerging renewable energy sources, smart grids business development plan, energy storage capacities related to energy security, district heating, electrification of road transportation, peak load management, energy efficiency in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors, etc. Accordingly, this research program proposal focuses on the following three interrelated objectives. • Improve the modeling capabilities of TIMES-Canada model (2009-2013) (building on past programs; effort 30%). It is a detailed techno-economic model (dynamic linear optimization) of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. This model is well suited for technology assessment, techno-economic impact of greenhouse gases emissions reduction strategy, strategic assessment of different energy and environmental policies, etc. The model is now ready for commercial use. New issues are emerging. There is a need for a physical representation of the Reference energy system (energy reserves such as oil or renewable resources, energy production infrastructures, energy corridors and related risk assessment, smart grids including telecommunication infrastructures, location of industries, cities, etc.). Linking TIMES-Canada model to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) will thus improve analytical capabilities (ex.: distances, physical constraints determined by the use of remote sensing and geographic databases) for policy analytics or corporate strategies. • Develop a multi-model integrated approach for energy and environmental planning at the metropolitan area level or similar regional entities (case study: Montreal Metropolitan Community) (new development; effort 50%). Those communities will have to plan for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The approach is based on coupling simulation and optimization models and using open-source software’s. OSeMOSYS (Open source energy modeling system) platform will manage the reference energy system for long term techno-economic optimization (Same model family than TIMES models). Open source GIS software will be selected to represent, analyze data and communicate spatial simulation modeling results even on the Web. Multicriteria decision aid platform such as Decision Deck offers opportunities to negotiate climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios. Many uncertainty sources are related to this latter problem. They will be managed through stochastic and robust programming methods already developed and which will be adapted and expanded to our problem formulation. • Policy Analytics is increasingly open to stakeholder involvement even at an early stage (edging development; effort 20%). Negotiations between stakeholders would benefit a lot from Decision Support Systems on the Web. In the energy and environment policy analytics, there is a need for a deliberative space involving relevant stakeholders. Those Web interfaces raise new issues about integrating planning, strategic assessment, participation and negotiation processes and tools including strong analytical and communicational capabilities. We will go further in the development of multicriteria decision aid processes and tools to integrate contributions from the above model developments. We will also improve the consistency between criteria and indicators related to different decisional and spatial levels, as well as dynamic evolution of decision context, and uncertainty treatments (stochastic multicriteria, robustness analysis).