Multi-model approaches for technology assessment, energy and environmental policies at different decision and spatial levels

不同决策和空间层面的技术评估、能源和环境政策的多模型方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04968
• 负责人: Waaub, JeanPhilippe
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636668
• 关键词: Multi; model; approaches; technology; assessment

In keeping with my research in the Energy and Environment team at GERAD (E2G) whom I am co-director, my objective is to develop analytical tools for different decision and spatial levels to address issues such as energy exportation, decentralized energy production related to emerging renewable energy sources, smart grids business development plan, energy storage capacities related to energy security, district heating, electrification of road transportation, peak load management, energy efficiency in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors, etc. Accordingly, this research program proposal focuses on the following three interrelated objectives.• Improve the modeling capabilities of TIMES-Canada model (2009-2013) (building on past programs; effort 30%). It is a detailed techno-economic model (dynamic linear optimization) of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. This model is well suited for technology assessment, techno-economic impact of greenhouse gases emissions reduction strategy, strategic assessment of different energy and environmental policies, etc. The model is now ready for commercial use. New issues are emerging. There is a need for a physical representation of the Reference energy system (energy reserves such as oil or renewable resources, energy production infrastructures, energy corridors and related risk assessment, smart grids including telecommunication infrastructures, location of industries, cities, etc.). Linking TIMES-Canada model to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) will thus improve analytical capabilities (ex.: distances, physical constraints determined by the use of remote sensing and geographic databases) for policy analytics or corporate strategies.• Develop a multi-model integrated approach for energy and environmental planning at the metropolitan area level or similar regional entities (case study: Montreal Metropolitan Community) (new development; effort 50%). Those communities will have to plan for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The approach is based on coupling simulation and optimization models and using open-source software’s. OSeMOSYS (Open source energy modeling system) platform will manage the reference energy system for long term techno-economic optimization (Same model family than TIMES models). Open source GIS software will be selected to represent, analyze data and communicate spatial simulation modeling results even on the Web. Multicriteria decision aid platform such as Decision Deck offers opportunities to negotiate climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios. Many uncertainty sources are related to this latter problem. They will be managed through stochastic and robust programming methods already developed and which will be adapted and expanded to our problem formulation.• Policy Analytics is increasingly open to stakeholder involvement even at an early stage (edging development; effort 20%). Negotiations between stakeholders would benefit a lot from Decision Support Systems on the Web. In the energy and environment policy analytics, there is a need for a deliberative space involving relevant stakeholders. Those Web interfaces raise new issues about integrating planning, strategic assessment, participation and negotiation processes and tools including strong analytical and communicational capabilities. We will go further in the development of multicriteria decision aid processes and tools to integrate contributions from the above model developments. We will also improve the consistency between criteria and indicators related to different decisional and spatial levels, as well as dynamic evolution of decision context, and uncertainty treatments (stochastic multicriteria, robustness analysis).

为了与我在GERAD（E2 G）能源与环境团队（我担任联席主任）的研究保持一致，我的目标是开发用于不同决策和空间级别的分析工具，以解决能源出口、与新兴可再生能源相关的分散能源生产等问题。能源、智能电网业务发展计划、与能源安全相关的能源存储能力、区域供暖、道路运输电气化，高峰负荷管理，交通，住宅，商业和工业部门的能源效率等，因此，本研究计划提案侧重于以下三个相互关联的目标。提高加拿大时间模型（2009-2013）的建模能力（建立在过去的计划;努力30%）。这是一个详细的技术经济模型（动态线性优化）的13个加拿大省和地区。该模型非常适合于技术评估、温室气体减排战略的技术经济影响、不同能源和环境政策的战略评估等。新的问题正在出现。有必要对参考能源系统（能源储备，如石油或可再生资源，能源生产基础设施，能源走廊和相关的风险评估，智能电网，包括电信基础设施，工业，城市等的位置）进行物理表示。因此，将加拿大的TIMES模型与地理信息系统联系起来将提高分析能力（例如：距离、通过使用遥感和地理数据库确定的物理限制）用于政策分析或公司战略。在大都市区一级或类似的区域实体制定能源和环境规划的多模式综合办法（案例研究：蒙特利尔大都市社区）（新发展;努力50%）。这些社区必须为减缓和适应气候变化制定计划。该方法基于耦合仿真和优化模型，并使用开源软件。开源能源建模系统（OSeMOSTIC）平台将管理长期技术经济优化的参考能源系统（与TIMES模型相同的模型系列）。将选择开放源码地理信息系统软件来表示、分析数据和交流空间模拟建模结果，甚至在网上。决策平台等多标准决策辅助平台为谈判气候减缓和适应方案提供了机会。许多不确定性来源与后一个问题有关。它们将通过已经开发的随机和健壮的编程方法进行管理，这些方法将适应和扩展到我们的问题制定中。·政策分析越来越多地开放给利益相关者参与，即使在早期阶段（边缘开发;工作量20%）。利益相关者之间的谈判将受益于网络上的决策支持系统。在能源和环境政策分析中，需要有一个涉及相关利益攸关方的审议空间。这些网络接口提出了关于整合规划、战略评估、参与和谈判进程和工具的新问题，包括强大的分析和通信能力。我们将进一步开发多标准决策辅助流程和工具，以整合上述模型开发的贡献。我们还将提高与不同决策和空间层次相关的标准和指标之间的一致性，以及决策背景的动态演变和不确定性处理（随机多标准，鲁棒性分析）。