Multi-model approaches for technology assessment, energy and environmental policies at different decision and spatial levels

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In keeping with my research in the Energy and Environment team at GERAD (E2G) whom I am co-director, my objective is to develop analytical tools for different decision and spatial levels to address issues such as energy exportation, decentralized energy production related to emerging renewable energy sources, smart grids business development plan, energy storage capacities related to energy security, district heating, electrification of road transportation, peak load management, energy efficiency in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors, etc. Accordingly, this research program proposal focuses on the following three interrelated objectives.• Improve the modeling capabilities of TIMES-Canada model (2009-2013) (building on past programs; effort 30%). It is a detailed techno-economic model (dynamic linear optimization) of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. This model is well suited for technology assessment, techno-economic impact of greenhouse gases emissions reduction strategy, strategic assessment of different energy and environmental policies, etc. The model is now ready for commercial use. New issues are emerging. There is a need for a physical representation of the Reference energy system (energy reserves such as oil or renewable resources, energy production infrastructures, energy corridors and related risk assessment, smart grids including telecommunication infrastructures, location of industries, cities, etc.). Linking TIMES-Canada model to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) will thus improve analytical capabilities (ex.: distances, physical constraints determined by the use of remote sensing and geographic databases) for policy analytics or corporate strategies.• Develop a multi-model integrated approach for energy and environmental planning at the metropolitan area level or similar regional entities (case study: Montreal Metropolitan Community) (new development; effort 50%). Those communities will have to plan for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The approach is based on coupling simulation and optimization models and using open-source software’s. OSeMOSYS (Open source energy modeling system) platform will manage the reference energy system for long term techno-economic optimization (Same model family than TIMES models). Open source GIS software will be selected to represent, analyze data and communicate spatial simulation modeling results even on the Web. Multicriteria decision aid platform such as Decision Deck offers opportunities to negotiate climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios. Many uncertainty sources are related to this latter problem. They will be managed through stochastic and robust programming methods already developed and which will be adapted and expanded to our problem formulation.• Policy Analytics is increasingly open to stakeholder involvement even at an early stage (edging development; effort 20%). Negotiations between stakeholders would benefit a lot from Decision Support Systems on the Web. In the energy and environment policy analytics, there is a need for a deliberative space involving relevant stakeholders. Those Web interfaces raise new issues about integrating planning, strategic assessment, participation and negotiation processes and tools including strong analytical and communicational capabilities. We will go further in the development of multicriteria decision aid processes and tools to integrate contributions from the above model developments. We will also improve the consistency between criteria and indicators related to different decisional and spatial levels, as well as dynamic evolution of decision context, and uncertainty treatments (stochastic multicriteria, robustness analysis).