Multi-model approaches for technology assessment, energy and environmental policies at different decision and spatial levels

不同决策和空间层面的技术评估、能源和环境政策的多模型方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04968
• 负责人: Waaub, JeanPhilippe
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Université du Québec à Montréal
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=611354
• 关键词: Multi; model; approaches; technology; assessment

In keeping with my research in the Energy and Environment team at GERAD (E2G) whom I am co-director, my objective is to develop analytical tools for different decision and spatial levels to address issues such as energy exportation, decentralized energy production related to emerging renewable energy sources, smart grids business development plan, energy storage capacities related to energy security, district heating, electrification of road transportation, peak load management, energy efficiency in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors, etc. Accordingly, this research program proposal focuses on the following three interrelated objectives. • Improve the modeling capabilities of TIMES-Canada model (2009-2013) (building on past programs; effort 30%). It is a detailed techno-economic model (dynamic linear optimization) of the 13 Canadian provinces and territories. This model is well suited for technology assessment, techno-economic impact of greenhouse gases emissions reduction strategy, strategic assessment of different energy and environmental policies, etc. The model is now ready for commercial use. New issues are emerging. There is a need for a physical representation of the Reference energy system (energy reserves such as oil or renewable resources, energy production infrastructures, energy corridors and related risk assessment, smart grids including telecommunication infrastructures, location of industries, cities, etc.). Linking TIMES-Canada model to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) will thus improve analytical capabilities (ex.: distances, physical constraints determined by the use of remote sensing and geographic databases) for policy analytics or corporate strategies. • Develop a multi-model integrated approach for energy and environmental planning at the metropolitan area level or similar regional entities (case study: Montreal Metropolitan Community) (new development; effort 50%). Those communities will have to plan for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The approach is based on coupling simulation and optimization models and using open-source software’s. OSeMOSYS (Open source energy modeling system) platform will manage the reference energy system for long term techno-economic optimization (Same model family than TIMES models). Open source GIS software will be selected to represent, analyze data and communicate spatial simulation modeling results even on the Web. Multicriteria decision aid platform such as Decision Deck offers opportunities to negotiate climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios. Many uncertainty sources are related to this latter problem. They will be managed through stochastic and robust programming methods already developed and which will be adapted and expanded to our problem formulation. • Policy Analytics is increasingly open to stakeholder involvement even at an early stage (edging development; effort 20%). Negotiations between stakeholders would benefit a lot from Decision Support Systems on the Web. In the energy and environment policy analytics, there is a need for a deliberative space involving relevant stakeholders. Those Web interfaces raise new issues about integrating planning, strategic assessment, participation and negotiation processes and tools including strong analytical and communicational capabilities. We will go further in the development of multicriteria decision aid processes and tools to integrate contributions from the above model developments. We will also improve the consistency between criteria and indicators related to different decisional and spatial levels, as well as dynamic evolution of decision context, and uncertainty treatments (stochastic multicriteria, robustness analysis).

根据我在 GERAD (E2G) 能源与环境团队（我是联合主任）的研究，我的目标是开发不同决策和空间层面的分析工具，以解决能源出口、与新兴可再生能源相关的分散能源生产、智能电网业务发展计划、与能源安全相关的储能能力、区域供热、道路交通电气化、峰值负荷管理、交通、住宅、商业能源效率等问题 因此，本研究计划提案重点关注以下三个相互关联的目标。 • 提高TIMES-Canada 模型的建模能力（2009-2013 年）（以过去的项目为基础；努力30%）。它是加拿大 13 个省和地区的详细技术经济模型（动态线性优化）。该模型非常适合技术评估、温室气体减排战略的技术经济影响、不同能源和环境政策的战略评估等，目前该模型已准备好投入商业使用。新的问题不断出现。需要对参考能源系统进行物理表示（石油或可再生资源等能源储备、能源生产基础设施、能源走廊和相关风险评估、包括电信基础设施在内的智能电网、工业、城市位置等）。因此，将 TIMES-Canada 模型与地理信息系统 (GIS) 连接将提高政策分析或企业战略的分析能力（例如：距离、通过使用遥感和地理数据库确定的物理约束）。 • 在大都市区或类似区域实体层面制定能源和环境规划的多模式综合方法（案例研究：蒙特利尔大都会社区）（新发展；努力50%）。这些社区必须制定缓解和适应气候变化的计划。该方法基于耦合仿真和优化模型并使用开源软件。 OSeMOSYS（开源能源建模系统）平台将管理参考能源系统，以实现长期技术经济优化（与 TIMES 模型相同的模型系列）。将选择开源 GIS 软件来表示、分析数据并在网络上传达空间模拟建模结果。 Decision Deck 等多标准决策辅助平台提供了协商气候缓解和适应方案的机会。许多不确定性来源都与后一个问题有关。它们将通过已经开发的随机且稳健的编程方法进行管理，这些方法将根据我们的问题制定进行调整和扩展。 • 政策分析对利益相关者的参与越来越开放，即使是在早期阶段（边缘开发；努力20%）。利益相关者之间的谈判将从网络上的决策支持系统中受益匪浅。在能源和环境政策分析中，需要一个涉及相关利益相关者的审议空间。这些网络界面提出了关于整合规划、战略评估、参与和谈判流程以及工具（包括强大的分析和沟通能力）的新问题。我们将进一步开发多标准决策辅助流程和工具，以整合上述模型开发的贡献。我们还将提高不同决策和空间层面相关的标准和指标之间的一致性，以及决策背景的动态演化和不确定性处理（随机多标准、鲁棒性分析）。