Selection of optimal design alternatives under conditions of uncertainty in underground hard rock mine valuation studies through assessment of strategic robustness tooperating risk

通过评估运营风险的战略鲁棒性，在地下硬岩矿估值研究的不确定性条件下选择最佳设计方案

• 批准号: 249942-2013
• 负责人: Kazakidis, Vassilios
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: Laurentian University of Sudbury
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=570777
• 关键词: Selection; optimal; design; alternatives; under

The focus of this work is driven by operating risk, as opposed to market or orebody uncertainty, to explore, using cash flow risk simulation, the robustness of operating design alternatives in a multivariable system through the long-range plan. In a world of widening competition and uncertainty, strategic adaptability is being increasingly recognized as critical to corporate success. Robustness refers to an operating system that performs adequately under ordinary conditions, but also under unusual conditions that stress the designers' assumptions. Unlike downstream ore processing, the Canadian Mining Industry has room to improve its performance forecasts, in order to enhance its competitiveness. A project valuation study requires risk assessment that links to bottom-line output project values. It has been realized in operating underground mines that the greatest scope for savings is presented during the early planning project valuation stage, under the constraint of limited information. Once ground is broken, the available alternatives diminish exponentially as the mine matures. Multivariable design constraints, the interdependence of problem variables and the uncertainty in determining the distribution of input variables are the challenges in building optimal strategies for forecasted scenarios. Operating uncertainty needs to be counterbalanced through the introduction of alternatives that introduce quality, and flexibility, in design. The proposed work addresses the acute need of the industry to increase the design robustness in mine feasibility and trade-off studies, for adaptability to uncertain operating conditions. The project will produce a valuation operating risk methodology for exploring essential flexible and quality alternatives through dynamic stochastic risk simulation by assessing the impact of time, cost, and mine revenue variables on a project's bottom line.

这项工作的重点是由经营风险，而不是市场或矿体的不确定性，探索，使用现金流风险模拟，通过长期计划的多变量系统中的操作设计方案的鲁棒性。在一个竞争日益激烈、不确定性不断增加的世界里，战略适应性越来越被认为是企业成功的关键。鲁棒性是指操作系统在正常条件下以及在强调设计者假设的异常条件下都能充分执行。与下游矿石加工不同，加拿大采矿业有改善其业绩预测的空间，以提高其竞争力。项目评估研究需要与项目底线产出价值相联系的风险评估。在经营地下矿山方面，人们认识到，在信息有限的情况下，在早期规划项目估价阶段提出了最大的节省空间。一旦破土动工，随着矿山的成熟，可用的替代方案将呈指数级减少。多变量设计约束、问题变量的相互依赖性以及确定输入变量分布的不确定性是为预测情景构建最优策略的挑战。运营的不确定性需要通过在设计中引入质量和灵活性的替代方案来平衡。 拟议的工作解决了行业的迫切需要，以提高矿山可行性和权衡研究的设计鲁棒性，以适应不确定的操作条件。该项目将通过评估时间、成本和采矿收入变量对项目底线的影响，通过动态随机风险模拟，制定一种评估运营风险的方法，以探索必要的灵活和高质量的替代方案。