Flexibility and quality assessment to counter ground-problem delays in the design of deep underground hard rock mining systems

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Deep mining faces technological and operational challenges that require intensive research focus to manage the risks associated with Greenfield projects. These risks are related to higher temperatures/stress compared to "normal" mining conditions. Among the strategies to counter the risk associated with mine production systems at depth is the greater control of variables and the introduction of new technologies. Ground-related problems will be a particular focus in deep mines, and will require the justification of design alternatives that optimize the overall risk profile of a mining system. The question of which measures are appropriate to be introduced for deep mining is posed at the feasibility stage, where irreversible decisions in terms of infrastructure, method and technology needs are being made. The proposed work evaluates the interaction of quality and flexibility assessment in the planning and design of underground mines with ground-problem delays being the risk impediment to the production system. Quality measures can be introduced to enhance the performance of mine operations through statistical analyses that require cost and uncertainty data in a process capability/performance simulation analysis. Flexibility assessment through the application of real options and process simulation can provide the justification of alternatives that improve the robustness of a production system to meet its targets and the optimization of a system. The methodology in this research project includes the application of statistical methods and real options analysis to process simulation modelling, through case study work where ground-problem delays and the potential alternative to ameliorate their impact are considered. Quality enhancement and introduction of flexibility will have important capital and operating cost implications in the design of deep mining systems with the justification of alternatives being a function of the frequency and the impact of ground problems. The result will provide a vehicle for the evaluation of alternatives containing both flexibility and quality components.