Selection of optimal design alternatives under conditions of uncertainty in underground hard rock mine valuation studies through assessment of strategic robustness tooperating risk

通过评估运营风险的战略鲁棒性，在地下硬岩矿估值研究的不确定性条件下选择最佳设计方案

• 批准号: 249942-2013
• 负责人: Kazakidis, Vassilios
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: Laurentian University of Sudbury
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=678505
• 关键词: Selection; optimal; design; alternatives; under

The focus of this work is driven by operating risk, as opposed to market or orebody uncertainty, to explore, using cash flow risk simulation, the robustness of operating design alternatives in a multivariable system through the long-range plan. In a world of widening competition and uncertainty, strategic adaptability is being increasingly recognized as critical to corporate success. Robustness refers to an operating system that performs adequately under ordinary conditions, but also under unusual conditions that stress the designers' assumptions. Unlike downstream ore processing, the Canadian Mining Industry has room to improve its performance forecasts, in order to enhance its competitiveness. A project valuation study requires risk assessment that links to bottom-line output project values. It has been realized in operating underground mines that the greatest scope for savings is presented during the early planning project valuation stage, under the constraint of limited information. Once ground is broken, the available alternatives diminish exponentially as the mine matures. Multivariable design constraints, the interdependence of problem variables and the uncertainty in determining the distribution of input variables are the challenges in building optimal strategies for forecasted scenarios. Operating uncertainty needs to be counterbalanced through the introduction of alternatives that introduce quality, and flexibility, in design.The proposed work addresses the acute need of the industry to increase the design robustness in mine feasibility and trade-off studies, for adaptability to uncertain operating conditions. The project will produce a valuation operating risk methodology for exploring essential flexible and quality alternatives through dynamic stochastic risk simulation by assessing the impact of time, cost, and mine revenue variables on a project's bottom line.

这项工作的重点是由运营风险（而不是市场或矿体不确定性）驱动，利用现金流风险模拟，通过长期计划探索多变量系统中运营设计替代方案的稳健性。在竞争和不确定性不断扩大的世界中，战略适应性越来越被认为对企业成功至关重要。鲁棒性是指操作系统在正常条件下能够充分运行，而且在强调设计者假设的异常条件下也能正常运行。与下游矿石加工不同，加拿大矿业有改善业绩预测的空间，以增强竞争力。项目评估研究需要与底线产出项目价值相关的风险评估。在地下矿山运营中已经认识到，在信息有限的情况下，在早期规划项目评估阶段就可以实现最大的节省空间。一旦破土动工，可用的替代方案就会随着矿山的成熟而呈指数级减少。多变量设计约束、问题变量的相互依赖性以及确定输入变量分布的不确定性是为预测场景构建最佳策略的挑战。需要通过引入设计中引入质量和灵活性的替代方案来平衡运营不确定性。拟议的工作解决了行业对提高矿山可行性和权衡研究中的设计稳健性的迫切需求，以适应不确定的运营条件。该项目将制定一种估值运营风险方法，通过动态随机风险模拟，评估时间、成本和矿山收入变量对项目底线的影响，探索必要的灵活和优质替代方案。