Selection of optimal design alternatives under conditions of uncertainty in underground hard rock mine valuation studies through assessment of strategic robustness tooperating risk

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The focus of this work is driven by operating risk, as opposed to market or orebody uncertainty, to explore, using cash flow risk simulation, the robustness of operating design alternatives in a multivariable system through the long-range plan. In a world of widening competition and uncertainty, strategic adaptability is being increasingly recognized as critical to corporate success. Robustness refers to an operating system that performs adequately under ordinary conditions, but also under unusual conditions that stress the designers' assumptions. Unlike downstream ore processing, the Canadian Mining Industry has room to improve its performance forecasts, in order to enhance its competitiveness. A project valuation study requires risk assessment that links to bottom-line output project values. It has been realized in operating underground mines that the greatest scope for savings is presented during the early planning project valuation stage, under the constraint of limited information. Once ground is broken, the available alternatives diminish exponentially as the mine matures. Multivariable design constraints, the interdependence of problem variables and the uncertainty in determining the distribution of input variables are the challenges in building optimal strategies for forecasted scenarios. Operating uncertainty needs to be counterbalanced through the introduction of alternatives that introduce quality, and flexibility, in design.The proposed work addresses the acute need of the industry to increase the design robustness in mine feasibility and trade-off studies, for adaptability to uncertain operating conditions. The project will produce a valuation operating risk methodology for exploring essential flexible and quality alternatives through dynamic stochastic risk simulation by assessing the impact of time, cost, and mine revenue variables on a project's bottom line.