Flexibility and quality assessment to counter ground-problem delays in the design of deep underground hard rock mining systems

深层开采面临着技术和操作方面的挑战，需要深入研究，以管理与绿地项目相关的风险。与“正常”采矿条件相比，这些风险与更高的温度/应力有关。对付与深海矿井生产系统有关的风险的战略之一是加强对变量的控制和采用新技术。与地面有关的问题将是深井中特别关注的问题，并将需要证明设计备选方案的合理性，使采矿系统的总体风险状况达到最佳。在可行性阶段，正在就基础设施、方法和技术需要作出不可逆转的决定时，提出了为深层采矿采取哪些适当措施的问题。提出的工作评估了质量和灵活性评估在地下矿山规划和设计中的相互作用，地面问题延迟是生产系统的风险障碍。可以采用质量措施，通过统计分析提高矿山作业的绩效，这需要过程能力/绩效模拟分析中的成本和不确定性数据。通过应用实物期权和过程模拟进行灵活性评估，可以为提高生产系统的鲁棒性以满足其目标和优化系统的替代方案提供理由。本研究项目的方法包括应用统计方法和实物期权分析来处理模拟建模，通过案例研究工作，其中考虑了地面问题延迟和改善其影响的潜在替代方案。质量的提高和灵活性的引入将对深层采矿系统的设计产生重大的资本和业务成本影响，而替代方案的合理性取决于地面问题的频率和影响。该结果将为评估包含灵活性和质量成分的替代方案提供工具。

Deep mining faces technological and operational challenges that require intensive research focus to manage the risks associated with Greenfield projects. These risks are related to higher temperatures/stress compared to "normal" mining conditions. Among the strategies to counter the risk associated with mine production systems at depth is the greater control of variables and the introduction of new technologies. Ground-related problems will be a particular focus in deep mines, and will require the justification of design alternatives that optimize the overall risk profile of a mining system. The question of which measures are appropriate to be introduced for deep mining is posed at the feasibility stage, where irreversible decisions in terms of infrastructure, method and technology needs are being made. The proposed work evaluates the interaction of quality and flexibility assessment in the planning and design of underground mines with ground-problem delays being the risk impediment to the production system. Quality measures can be introduced to enhance the performance of mine operations through statistical analyses that require cost and uncertainty data in a process capability/performance simulation analysis. Flexibility assessment through the application of real options and process simulation can provide the justification of alternatives that improve the robustness of a production system to meet its targets and the optimization of a system. The methodology in this research project includes the application of statistical methods and real options analysis to process simulation modelling, through case study work where ground-problem delays and the potential alternative to ameliorate their impact are considered. Quality enhancement and introduction of flexibility will have important capital and operating cost implications in the design of deep mining systems with the justification of alternatives being a function of the frequency and the impact of ground problems. The result will provide a vehicle for the evaluation of alternatives containing both flexibility and quality components.