Systems modelling for water resources management at the river-basin scale

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The need for river basin-scale decision-support tools -- developed in a participatory fashion so that decision-makers understand and trust them and can use them directly in analyzing policy alternatives -- is increasingly recognized as water demands grow, supplies change and the implications of poor quality become clearer. Although many sophisticated water resources models are currently available, they are a different kind that typically requires considerable expertise to operate and focuses explicitly on water quantity and quality within river systems, or on the details of specific sectors (agriculture, industry or municipalities). As an alternative, this proposal describes a simulation model for sustainable, basin-scale management of water resources to serve as 1) an exploratory tool for decision-makers, who can run multiple model scenarios and rapidly analyze the results through changes in the values of key indicators, thereby improving their understanding of management options and their broader near- to long-term effects, and 2) a scoping tool to identify important research and policy needs, and allocate limited resources. To these ends, the proposed model would link three main components: water supply in the basin and its change over time; water uses and their effects on both quantity and quality of the supply; and a means of comparing alternative management strategies through indicators. The proposed research will help to address the following questions for the Bow River basin in Southern Alberta: 1. What is the current state of the basin in terms of water demand, supply and quality, and how are changes in population and the local economy likely to affect water resources into the future? 2. What are the relative, longer-term effects of alternative management policies and technologies on municipal, agricultural and industrial water use and quality, the environment and socio-economic development? 3. How do decisions in individual, particularly upstream, river reaches affect downstream reaches?