Systems modelling for water resources management at the river-basin scale

流域尺度水资源管理系统建模

• 批准号: 386415-2013
• 负责人: Davies, Evan
• 金额: $ 1.53万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636388
• 关键词: Systems; modelling; water; resources; management

The need for river basin-scale decision-support tools -- developed in a participatory fashion so that decision-makers understand and trust them and can use them directly in analyzing policy alternatives -- is increasingly recognized as water demands grow, supplies change and the implications of poor quality become clearer. Although many sophisticated water resources models are currently available, they are a different kind that typically requires considerable expertise to operate and focuses explicitly on water quantity and quality within river systems, or on the details of specific sectors (agriculture, industry or municipalities).As an alternative, this proposal describes a simulation model for sustainable, basin-scale management of water resources to serve as 1) an exploratory tool for decision-makers, who can run multiple model scenarios and rapidly analyze the results through changes in the values of key indicators, thereby improving their understanding of management options and their broader near- to long-term effects, and 2) a scoping tool to identify important research and policy needs, and allocate limited resources. To these ends, the proposed model would link three main components: water supply in the basin and its change over time; water uses and their effects on both quantity and quality of the supply; and a means of comparing alternative management strategies through indicators. The proposed research will help to address the following questions for the Bow River basin in Southern Alberta:1. What is the current state of the basin in terms of water demand, supply and quality, and how are changes in population and the local economy likely to affect water resources into the future? 2. What are the relative, longer-term effects of alternative management policies and technologies on municipal, agricultural and industrial water use and quality, the environment and socio-economic development?3. How do decisions in individual, particularly upstream, river reaches affect downstream reaches?

随着水需求的增长、供应的变化以及质量差的影响越来越明显，人们日益认识到需要流域规模的决策支持工具-以参与方式开发，以便决策者理解和信任这些工具，并可直接用于分析政策备选方案。虽然目前有许多复杂的水资源模型，但它们是不同的类型，通常需要相当多的专门知识才能运作，并明确侧重于河流系统内的水量和水质，或具体部门的细节（农业、工业或市政当局）。作为一种替代办法，本提案描述了一种模拟模型，流域规模的水资源管理将作为1）决策者的一种探索工具，他们可以运行多种模型情景，并通过关键指标值的变化迅速分析结果，从而提高他们对管理备选方案及其更广泛的近期和长期影响的理解，以及2）确定重要研究和政策需求并分配有限资源的范围界定工具。为此目的，拟议的模式将把三个主要组成部分联系起来：流域内的供水及其随时间的变化;水的使用及其对供水数量和质量的影响;以及通过指标比较各种备选管理战略的手段。拟议的研究将有助于解决以下问题的弓河流域在南部阿尔伯塔：1。该流域在水的需求、供应和质量方面的现状如何，人口和当地经济的变化可能如何影响未来的水资源？2.替代管理政策和技术对城市、农业和工业用水和水质、环境和社会经济发展有哪些相对的长期影响？3.在个别河段，特别是上游河段的决策如何影响下游河段？