Water resources systems modelling at the river-basin scale

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This proposal presents a unique water resources management model at a river-basin scale that can reveal the complex and often unpredictable effects of changes in policy, infrastructure, socio-economic activity and environmental conditions over multiple decades into the future. Using a modelling approach called system dynamics, the model will simulate variables and outcomes important to governments, industries and the public. It will link: 1) municipal, industrial and agricultural water use, 2) the available supply and its change over time and 3) water quality and its connections to socio-economic activity and hydrological conditions. The model will help to put the concept of “water security” into practice. Water security emphasizes the necessity of 1) balance between human and environmental water requirements, 2) adaptive management in the face of limited predictability of water systems and 3) assessment of trade-offs among various possible water uses. The proposed river-basin model will simulate water supply, use and quality at a weekly time step for the 25,000 km2 Bow River basin of Southern Alberta. The Bow makes an ideal study area for several reasons: water is already scarce there in dry years; basin closure to new water allocations in 2006 constrains present and future water use; human population and economic activity are rising quickly; significant fish stocks and provincial targets make water quality a concern; and climate change is projected to alter temperatures and precipitation and decrease summer-time water availability. The model will be developed in collaboration with stakeholder groups, including Bow River Basin Council members, provincial government staff, municipal staff members, industry representatives, irrigation district personnel and the public. These stakeholders will be invited to help to select management options, define key scenarios, assess model behaviour and ensure that the model is useful for decision-support.From a scientific perspective, the model will address important gaps in water security and water systems research, and offer the potential to advance a fundamental understanding of coupled human and hydrological processes and their interactions. In practical terms, individual municipal and agricultural model components will aid medium to long-term planning for the City of Calgary, Bow River irrigation districts, provincial ministries, and other interested groups. The full river-basin model will integrate these individual components to serve as a practical decision-support tool at a high level of detail to: 1) project long-term watershed trajectories for plausible changes in population, climate, and municipal and agricultural systems; 2) permit assessment of possible consequences of water resources management options and 3) quantify trade-offs among water uses and their associated policies.