Water resources systems modelling at the river-basin scale

该提案提出了一个独特的流域水资源管理模式，可以揭示未来几十年政策、基础设施、社会经济活动和环境条件变化的复杂和往往不可预测的影响。该模型使用一种称为系统动力学的建模方法，将模拟对政府、行业和公众重要的变量和结果。它将链接：1）城市、工业和农业用水，2）现有供水及其随时间的变化，3）水质及其与社会经济活动和水文条件的关系。该模式将有助于将“水安全”概念付诸实践。水安全强调必须：（1）人类和环境用水需求之间的平衡;（2）在水系统可预测性有限的情况下进行适应性管理;（3）评估各种可能用水之间的权衡。 拟议的流域模型将模拟水的供应，使用和质量在每周的时间步长为25,000平方公里的南阿尔伯塔弓河流域。弓使一个理想的研究领域有几个原因：水已经在干旱年份稀缺;流域关闭新的水分配在2006年限制了现在和未来的用水;人口和经济活动迅速增长;重要的鱼类种群和省级目标使水质成为一个问题;和气候变化预计将改变温度和降水量，减少夏季水的可用性。该模型将与利益攸关方团体合作开发，包括弓河流域理事会成员、省政府工作人员、市政工作人员、行业代表、灌区人员和公众。将邀请这些利益攸关方帮助选择管理备选方案，界定关键情景，评估模型行为，并确保模型有助于决策支持。 从科学角度来看，该模型将填补水安全和水系统研究方面的重要空白，并有可能促进对人类和水文过程及其相互作用的基本了解。实际上，个别市政和农业模型组件将有助于卡尔加里市、弓河灌溉区、省级部委和其他相关团体的中长期规划。完整的流域模型将把这些单独的组成部分结合起来，作为一个高度详细的实用决策支持工具：1）为人口、气候、市政和农业系统的合理变化预测长期流域轨迹; 2）允许评估水资源管理方案的可能后果; 3）量化水资源利用及其相关政策之间的权衡。

This proposal presents a unique water resources management model at a river-basin scale that can reveal the complex and often unpredictable effects of changes in policy, infrastructure, socio-economic activity and environmental conditions over multiple decades into the future. Using a modelling approach called system dynamics, the model will simulate variables and outcomes important to governments, industries and the public. It will link: 1) municipal, industrial and agricultural water use, 2) the available supply and its change over time and 3) water quality and its connections to socio-economic activity and hydrological conditions. The model will help to put the concept of “water security” into practice. Water security emphasizes the necessity of 1) balance between human and environmental water requirements, 2) adaptive management in the face of limited predictability of water systems and 3) assessment of trade-offs among various possible water uses. The proposed river-basin model will simulate water supply, use and quality at a weekly time step for the 25,000 km2 Bow River basin of Southern Alberta. The Bow makes an ideal study area for several reasons: water is already scarce there in dry years; basin closure to new water allocations in 2006 constrains present and future water use; human population and economic activity are rising quickly; significant fish stocks and provincial targets make water quality a concern; and climate change is projected to alter temperatures and precipitation and decrease summer-time water availability. The model will be developed in collaboration with stakeholder groups, including Bow River Basin Council members, provincial government staff, municipal staff members, industry representatives, irrigation district personnel and the public. These stakeholders will be invited to help to select management options, define key scenarios, assess model behaviour and ensure that the model is useful for decision-support. From a scientific perspective, the model will address important gaps in water security and water systems research, and offer the potential to advance a fundamental understanding of coupled human and hydrological processes and their interactions. In practical terms, individual municipal and agricultural model components will aid medium to long-term planning for the City of Calgary, Bow River irrigation districts, provincial ministries, and other interested groups. The full river-basin model will integrate these individual components to serve as a practical decision-support tool at a high level of detail to: 1) project long-term watershed trajectories for plausible changes in population, climate, and municipal and agricultural systems; 2) permit assessment of possible consequences of water resources management options and 3) quantify trade-offs among water uses and their associated policies.