Estimating eastern spruce budworm dispersal using landscape genetics

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Outbreaks of forest insects have significant economic and ecological consequences for Canada's forests. One of the ways in which the population dynamics of forest insects can be better understood, and potentially controlled, is through examination of their interactions with forest spatial structure. Often, the type of forest and its spatial arrangement affects the dynamics of insect populations and can influence outbreak potential. The spruce budworm is an example of a well-known forest pest that can devastate huge areas of forests during epidemics. Spruce budworm outbreak dynamics are shaped by complex interactions among climate, forests, natural enemies, and dispersal. Despite the significance of the spruce budworm to Canada's forest, little is known about its dispersal in different forests conditions and how this affects outbreaks. This research will use genetic methods to assess dispersal in the spruce budworm in different forest types using a set of conceptual and analytical approaches referred to as "landscape genetics". Genetic similarity among insects will be used to assess the probability of movement among different geographic locations in order to create a model of spruce budworm dispersal as a function of forest structure. Using these techniques, this research will increase our knowledge of how insect movement varies in different forest and landscape contexts will be used to improve simulation models that predict insect population dynamics and forecast future outbreak risk. This research will train a total of 11 highly qualified personnel in methods of forest ecology, spatial statistics, simulation modelling, and landscape genetics.