Forecasting the consequences of insect- wildfire interactions on boreal forest resilience under climate change

这项研究提案旨在提高我们对森林干扰和气候变化的累积效应如何影响未来森林健康和可持续性的理解。自然森林干扰，如昆虫爆发和野火，以及人为的干扰，如森林管理，没有独立的运作。相反，每次扰动的动态和后果取决于先前扰动留下的空间遗产。森林恢复和演替的自然过程改变了这些遗产本身。干扰、空间遗产和演替之间的动态和相互关系因与气候变化的不确定相互作用而进一步复杂化。预计气候变化将通过增加干旱和降低树木活力直接影响森林动态和演替。气温的上升预计也会改变森林昆虫，如云杉芽虫和山松甲虫爆发的范围和严重程度。最后，气候预计将增加野火的频率，范围和严重性。虽然已经提出了对每一个干扰本身的期望，我们知道很少这些不同的机制可能会相互作用，以产生未来的森林组成和配置模式。这项研究将是非常重要的森林管理人员在加拿大谁寻求更好地了解森林健康的累积干扰的后果，谁需要概念，战略和业务工具来预测未来的森林动态。这项工作也将是有价值的火灾管理人员谁需要更好的方法来整合森林昆虫爆发对野火活动的影响。最后，这项工作将有助于生物多样性科学家谁想要知道什么样的分布和北方野生动物栖息地的可用性看起来像在未来。

This research proposal aims to improve our understanding of how the cumulative effects of forest disturbances and climate change may affect future forest health and sustainability. Natural forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfires, as well as human-driven disturbances such as forest management, do no operate independently. Instead, the dynamics and consequences of each disturbance are contingent on the spatial legacies left behind by previous disturbances. These legacies themselves are modified by natural processes of forest recovery and succession. The consequent dynamic and reciprocal relationships among disturbances, consequent spatial legacies, and succession are further complicated by uncertain interactions with climate change. Climate change is expected to affect forest dynamics and succession directly through increased drought and reduced tree vigour. Increases in temperature are also expected to modify the extent and severity of outbreaks of forest insects such as the spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle. Finally climate is expected to increase the frequency, extent and severity of wildfires. Although expectations have been presented for each disturbance on its own, we know very little of how these different mechanisms might interact to produce future patterns in forest composition and configuration. This research will be of great importance to forest managers in Canada who seek to better understand the consequences of cumulative disturbances on forest health and who require conceptual, strategic, and operational tools to forecast future forest dynamics. This work will also be valuable to fire managers who need better ways to integrate the effects of forest insect outbreaks on wildfire activity. Finally, this work will be of use to biodiversity scientists who want to know what the distribution and availability of boreal wildlife habitat looks like in the future.