Forecasting the consequences of insect- wildfire interactions on boreal forest resilience under climate change

这项研究计划旨在提高我们对森林干扰和气候变化的累积效应如何影响未来森林健康和可持续性的理解。自然森林干扰，如虫害暴发和野火，以及人为干扰，如森林管理，都不是独立发生作用的。相反，每次扰动的动态和后果取决于先前扰动留下的空间遗产。这些遗产本身被森林恢复和演替的自然过程所改变。由于与气候变化的不确定相互作用，干扰、空间遗产和演替之间的动态和相互关系变得更加复杂。预计气候变化将通过增加干旱和降低树木活力直接影响森林动态和演替。预计气温升高还会改变云杉budworm和山松甲虫等森林昆虫爆发的程度和严重程度。最后，气候预计会增加野火发生的频率、范围和严重程度。虽然对每一种干扰都提出了预期，但我们对这些不同的机制如何相互作用以产生森林组成和配置的未来模式知之甚少。这项研究对加拿大的森林管理者非常重要，因为他们寻求更好地了解累积干扰对森林健康的后果，并需要概念、战略和业务工具来预测未来的森林动态。这项工作对火灾管理者也很有价值，因为他们需要更好的方法来综合森林昆虫爆发对野火活动的影响。最后，这项工作将对生物多样性科学家有用，他们想知道未来北方野生动物栖息地的分布和可用性。

This research proposal aims to improve our understanding of how the cumulative effects of forest disturbances and climate change may affect future forest health and sustainability. Natural forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfires, as well as human-driven disturbances such as forest management, do no operate independently. Instead, the dynamics and consequences of each disturbance are contingent on the spatial legacies left behind by previous disturbances. These legacies themselves are modified by natural processes of forest recovery and succession. The consequent dynamic and reciprocal relationships among disturbances, consequent spatial legacies, and succession are further complicated by uncertain interactions with climate change. Climate change is expected to affect forest dynamics and succession directly through increased drought and reduced tree vigour. Increases in temperature are also expected to modify the extent and severity of outbreaks of forest insects such as the spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle. Finally climate is expected to increase the frequency, extent and severity of wildfires. Although expectations have been presented for each disturbance on its own, we know very little of how these different mechanisms might interact to produce future patterns in forest composition and configuration. This research will be of great importance to forest managers in Canada who seek to better understand the consequences of cumulative disturbances on forest health and who require conceptual, strategic, and operational tools to forecast future forest dynamics. This work will also be valuable to fire managers who need better ways to integrate the effects of forest insect outbreaks on wildfire activity. Finally, this work will be of use to biodiversity scientists who want to know what the distribution and availability of boreal wildlife habitat looks like in the future.