Forecasting the consequences of insect- wildfire interactions on boreal forest resilience under climate change

这项研究建议旨在提高我们对森林干扰和气候变化的累积影响可能如何影响未来森林健康和可持续性的理解。自然森林干扰，如昆虫暴发和野火，以及人为干扰，如森林管理，都不是独立运作的。相反，每一次扰动的动态和后果取决于之前扰动留下的空间遗产。这些遗产本身被森林恢复和演替的自然过程所改变。由于与气候变化的不确定相互作用，干扰、随后的空间遗产和演替之间的动态和相互关系进一步复杂化。气候变化预计将通过增加干旱和降低树木活力直接影响森林动态和演替。气温的升高预计还会改变云杉芽孢子虫和山松甲虫等森林昆虫暴发的程度和严重程度。最后，气候预计将增加野火的频率、范围和严重程度。尽管对每一种干扰本身提出了期望，但我们对这些不同机制如何相互作用以产生未来森林组成和配置模式知之甚少。这项研究将对加拿大的森林管理者非常重要，他们试图更好地了解累积干扰对森林健康的影响，并需要概念、战略和操作工具来预测未来的森林动态。这项工作对消防管理人员也很有价值，他们需要更好的方法来综合森林虫害暴发对野火活动的影响。最后，这项工作将对生物多样性科学家有用，他们想知道未来北方野生动物栖息地的分布和可用性是什么样子。

This research proposal aims to improve our understanding of how the cumulative effects of forest disturbances and climate change may affect future forest health and sustainability. Natural forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfires, as well as human-driven disturbances such as forest management, do no operate independently. Instead, the dynamics and consequences of each disturbance are contingent on the spatial legacies left behind by previous disturbances. These legacies themselves are modified by natural processes of forest recovery and succession. The consequent dynamic and reciprocal relationships among disturbances, consequent spatial legacies, and succession are further complicated by uncertain interactions with climate change. Climate change is expected to affect forest dynamics and succession directly through increased drought and reduced tree vigour. Increases in temperature are also expected to modify the extent and severity of outbreaks of forest insects such as the spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle. Finally climate is expected to increase the frequency, extent and severity of wildfires. Although expectations have been presented for each disturbance on its own, we know very little of how these different mechanisms might interact to produce future patterns in forest composition and configuration. This research will be of great importance to forest managers in Canada who seek to better understand the consequences of cumulative disturbances on forest health and who require conceptual, strategic, and operational tools to forecast future forest dynamics. This work will also be valuable to fire managers who need better ways to integrate the effects of forest insect outbreaks on wildfire activity. Finally, this work will be of use to biodiversity scientists who want to know what the distribution and availability of boreal wildlife habitat looks like in the future.