Forecasting the consequences of insect- wildfire interactions on boreal forest resilience under climate change

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This research proposal aims to improve our understanding of how the cumulative effects of forest disturbances and climate change may affect future forest health and sustainability. Natural forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks and wildfires, as well as human-driven disturbances such as forest management, do no operate independently. Instead, the dynamics and consequences of each disturbance are contingent on the spatial legacies left behind by previous disturbances. These legacies themselves are modified by natural processes of forest recovery and succession. The consequent dynamic and reciprocal relationships among disturbances, consequent spatial legacies, and succession are further complicated by uncertain interactions with climate change. Climate change is expected to affect forest dynamics and succession directly through increased drought and reduced tree vigour. Increases in temperature are also expected to modify the extent and severity of outbreaks of forest insects such as the spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle. Finally climate is expected to increase the frequency, extent and severity of wildfires. Although expectations have been presented for each disturbance on its own, we know very little of how these different mechanisms might interact to produce future patterns in forest composition and configuration. This research will be of great importance to forest managers in Canada who seek to better understand the consequences of cumulative disturbances on forest health and who require conceptual, strategic, and operational tools to forecast future forest dynamics. This work will also be valuable to fire managers who need better ways to integrate the effects of forest insect outbreaks on wildfire activity. Finally, this work will be of use to biodiversity scientists who want to know what the distribution and availability of boreal wildlife habitat looks like in the future.