The NSERC TRIA Network: Turning risk into action for the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic

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The current mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic has affected more than 15 million hectares in western Canada. It seems inevitable that MPB will spread northward beyond 60 degrees, and eastward into the boreal forests. In Canada, ca. $1.5 billion has been spent on spread control, hoping to mitigate damage caused by this devastating forest insect pest. Understanding factors that influence MPB population dynamics is vital to designing efficient, cost-effective spread control programmes. Models that assess and forecast MPB risk are a cornerstone of spread control programmes. The efficacy of these risk models is limited by our lack of understanding of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system, particularly in novel (i.e. non-historical range) habitats. NSERC TRIA-Net goals are to (a) fill key knowledge gaps of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system that limit our ability to monitor, assess, and predict MPB risk to Canada's forests; (b) use this knowledge to inform environmental and socioeconomic risk model development; (c) provide outcomes to decision-makers in real-time. With the epidemic increasingly focused in novel habitats, we propose to focus specifically on addressing factors that are thought to impact MPB outbreak dynamics in these new regions. Research will be conducted at multiple scales of organization under four themes. (1) Molecular-scale analyses to understand processes that affect MPB success and host quality. (2) Population genomics analyses to determine whether adaptive variation factors into the MPB spread in novel habitats with naïve pine hosts. (3) Ecological-scale analyses of MPB population dynamics, leading to development of enhanced models of stand susceptibility and MPB spread risk for novel habitats. (4) Socioeconomic analysis of different MPB infestation scenarios using an ecosystem services framework. The multidisciplinary expertise of the research team and partner organizations, together with the integrated, collaborative cross-scale nature of the proposed research, enables a "Total Risk Management" approach. Through active involvement of partner organizations from Alberta to Quebec that are the front lines of decision-making, we anticipate a high "Information-to-Action Ratio" for TRIA-Net outcomes.