The NSERC TRIA Network: Turning risk into action for the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic

NSERC TRIA 网络：针对山松甲虫流行将风险转化为行动

• 批准号: 434810-2012
• 负责人: Cooke, Janice
• 金额: $ 48.74万
• 依托单位: University of Alberta
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Strategic Network Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=574030
• 关键词: NSERC; TRIA; Network; Turning; risk

The current mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic has affected more than 15 million hectares in western Canada. It seems inevitable that MPB will spread northward beyond 60 degrees, and eastward into the boreal forests. In Canada, ca. $1.5 billion has been spent on spread control, hoping to mitigate damage caused by this devastating forest insect pest. Understanding factors that influence MPB population dynamics is vital to designing efficient, cost-effective spread control programmes. Models that assess and forecast MPB risk are a cornerstone of spread control programmes. The efficacy of these risk models is limited by our lack of understanding of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system, particularly in novel (i.e. non-historical range) habitats. NSERC TRIA-Net goals are to (a) fill key knowledge gaps of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system that limit our ability to monitor, assess, and predict MPB risk to Canada's forests; (b) use this knowledge to inform environmental and socioeconomic risk model development; (c) provide outcomes to decision-makers in real-time. With the epidemic increasingly focused in novel habitats, we propose to focus specifically on addressing factors that are thought to impact MPB outbreak dynamics in these new regions. Research will be conducted at multiple scales of organization under four themes. (1) Molecular-scale analyses to understand processes that affect MPB success and host quality. (2) Population genomics analyses to determine whether adaptive variation factors into the MPB spread in novel habitats with naïve pine hosts. (3) Ecological-scale analyses of MPB population dynamics, leading to development of enhanced models of stand susceptibility and MPB spread risk for novel habitats. (4) Socioeconomic analysis of different MPB infestation scenarios using an ecosystem services framework. The multidisciplinary expertise of the research team and partner organizations, together with the integrated, collaborative cross-scale nature of the proposed research, enables a "Total Risk Management" approach. Through active involvement of partner organizations from Alberta to Quebec that are the front lines of decision-making, we anticipate a high "Information-to-Action Ratio" for TRIA-Net outcomes.

目前山松甲虫（MPB）疫情已影响西部地区超过1500万公顷土地 加拿大。 MPB似乎不可避免地会向北扩展超过60度，并向东进入北寒带 森林。在加拿大，约。已花费 15 亿美元用于扩散控制，希望减轻由此造成的损失 毁灭性的森林害虫。了解影响 MPB 种群动态的因素对于 设计高效、具有成本效益的传播控制计划。评估和预测 MPB 风险的模型是 传播控制计划的基石。这些风险模型的有效性因我们缺乏 了解 MPB-松树-真菌关联系统，特别是小说（即非历史范围） 栖息地。 NSERC TRIA-Net 的目标是 (a) 填补 MPB-松树-真菌关联系统的关键知识空白 这限制了我们监测、评估和预测加拿大森林 MPB 风险的能力； (b) 利用这些知识 为环境和社会经济风险模型的开发提供信息； (c) 向决策者提供成果 即时的。随着疫情越来越集中在新的栖息地，我们建议特别关注 解决被认为影响这些新地区 MPB 疫情动态的因素。研究将 在四个主题下在多个组织规模上进行。 (1) 分子尺度分析以了解 影响 MPB 成功和主机质量的流程。 (2) 群体基因组学分析以确定是否 MPB 在具有幼稚松寄主的新栖息地中传播的适应性变异因素。 (3) 生态规模 分析 MPB 种群动态，从而开发出林分易感性增强模型 MPB 传播新栖息地的风险。 (4) 使用模型对不同 MPB 感染情景进行社会经济分析 生态系统服务框架。研究团队和合作伙伴组织的多学科专业知识， 加上拟议研究的综合、协作跨规模性质，可以实现“总体风险” 管理”方法。通过从艾伯塔省到魁北克省的合作伙伴组织的积极参与， 在决策的前线，我们预计 TRIA-Net 结果将具有较高的“信息与行动比率”。