The NSERC TRIA Network: Turning risk into action for the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic

目前的山松甲虫（MPB）流行病已经影响了加拿大西部超过1500万公顷的土地。似乎不可避免的是，MPB将向北扩展超过60度，并向东进入北方森林。在加拿大，大约花费了15亿美元用于控制蔓延，希望减轻这种破坏性森林害虫造成的损害。了解影响MPB种群动态的因素对于设计有效的、具有成本效益的传播控制方案至关重要。评估和预测MPB风险的模型是传播控制方案的基础。这些风险模型的有效性受到我们缺乏对mpb -松树-真菌关联系统的理解的限制，特别是在新的（即非历史范围）栖息地。NSERC TRIA-Net的目标是(a)填补MPB-松树-真菌关联系统的关键知识空白，这些空白限制了我们监测、评估和预测加拿大森林MPB风险的能力；(b)利用这些知识为环境和社会经济风险模型的开发提供信息；(c)向决策者实时提供结果。随着流行病越来越多地集中在新的栖息地，我们建议特别关注那些被认为影响MPB在这些新地区爆发动态的因素。研究将在四个主题下的多个组织尺度下进行。(1)分子尺度分析，了解影响MPB成功和宿主质量的过程。(2)种群基因组学分析，以确定适应性变异因素是否影响MPB在naïve松树寄主的新栖息地的传播。(3)生态尺度上的林分易感性和林分扩散风险模型的建立。(4)基于生态系统服务框架的不同MPB侵害情景社会经济分析。研究团队和合作伙伴组织的多学科专业知识，以及拟议研究的集成、跨规模协作性质，使“全面风险管理”方法成为可能。通过从阿尔伯塔省到魁北克省的合作伙伴组织的积极参与，这些组织是决策的前线，我们预计TRIA-Net结果的“信息与行动比率”将很高。

The current mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic has affected more than 15 million hectares in westernCanada. It seems inevitable that MPB will spread northward beyond 60 degrees, and eastward into the borealforests. In Canada, ca. $1.5 billion has been spent on spread control, hoping to mitigate damage caused by thisdevastating forest insect pest. Understanding factors that influence MPB population dynamics is vital todesigning efficient, cost-effective spread control programmes. Models that assess and forecast MPB risk are acornerstone of spread control programmes. The efficacy of these risk models is limited by our lack ofunderstanding of the MPB-pine-fungal associate system, particularly in novel (i.e. non-historical range)habitats. NSERC TRIA-Net goals are to (a) fill key knowledge gaps of the MPB-pine-fungal associate systemthat limit our ability to monitor, assess, and predict MPB risk to Canada's forests; (b) use this knowledge toinform environmental and socioeconomic risk model development; (c) provide outcomes to decision-makers inreal-time. With the epidemic increasingly focused in novel habitats, we propose to focus specifically onaddressing factors that are thought to impact MPB outbreak dynamics in these new regions. Research will beconducted at multiple scales of organization under four themes. (1) Molecular-scale analyses to understandprocesses that affect MPB success and host quality. (2) Population genomics analyses to determine whetheradaptive variation factors into the MPB spread in novel habitats with naïve pine hosts. (3) Ecological-scaleanalyses of MPB population dynamics, leading to development of enhanced models of stand susceptibility andMPB spread risk for novel habitats. (4) Socioeconomic analysis of different MPB infestation scenarios using anecosystem services framework. The multidisciplinary expertise of the research team and partner organizations,together with the integrated, collaborative cross-scale nature of the proposed research, enables a "Total RiskManagement" approach. Through active involvement of partner organizations from Alberta to Quebec that arethe front lines of decision-making, we anticipate a high "Information-to-Action Ratio" for TRIA-Net outcomes.