Water Demand Forecasting for Water Distribution Systems - A Chaotic Approach

获得安全饮用水对世界各地的人类健康和环境至关重要。管理水的供应非常重要，特别是在供应和储存能力有限和/或需求接近或超过供应的地区。保护水分配系统是加拿大科学和技术战略的一个组成部分。目前，加拿大现有的水资源存在许多压力（也许将继续存在），导致水供应和需求的压力。这些因素包括人口增长、土地使用做法、社区和经济发展、气候变化和生态系统的其他变化（http：www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp? lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show）。现有用水需求的程度以及水资源的水力学和/或水文学特性是管理供需的重要考虑因素。阿尔伯塔某些地区缺乏淡水和/或地下水资源，正成为供水商的主要关切。在不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC），低陆平原、温哥华岛东海岸和部分的温尼伯-奥卡诺根地区的人口增长率明显较高。因此，对水的需求相对较高，对现有的供水造成压力。受季节性旅游影响严重的社区在管理家庭用水需求的季节性波动方面可能面临独特的挑战。在基洛纳和托菲诺（不列颠哥伦比亚省），由于该地区的大量旅游业，夏季人口增长3倍和10倍。与此同时，小溪的流量也处于最低水平。2003年，Summerland（BC）的水供应大幅枯竭。在溪流供水（以确保鱼类生存）与农民和粮食生产供水之间发生了重大冲突。2010年，不列颠哥伦比亚省环境部利用其在《水法》下的权力，改变了受管制的引水量和用水量，并在烟囱湖（不列颠哥伦比亚省）地区援引了优先权（http：www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp? lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show）。气候变化（例如，年降水量和季节降水量减少，积雪减少，冰川消失，干旱增加等）还对水的需求和供应管理产生重大影响。为确保淡水供人类使用和支持生态系统的持续可持续性，必须在可用水量和需求水量之间保持惊人的平衡。为了实现这一目标，相关决策者和当局必须实时准确地了解水需求和水供应情况。这些知识将有助于当局采取最佳管理和经营战略，确保在不用尽现有水资源的情况下提供充足的水供应。在向NSERC发现资助计划提出的研究中，我将专注于水需求预测。本研究计划的长期目标是创建一个数学建模工具来预测配水系统的需水量。为实现这一目标，将完成以下步骤。1)考虑到水文参数（降雨量、相对湿度和蒸发）、气候参数（风速、气温和日照时间）和人口是最具影响力的参数，将从负责的地方、省、联邦办公室收集相关数据。将评估数据的准确性和完整性。2)将混沌理论应用于需水量预测模型的建立。3)为了验证该模型，将研究基洛纳市（BC）的供水系统。

Access to safe drinking water is imperative to human health and environment everywhere. Managing the water supply is of high importance particularly in regions where supplies and storage capacities are limited, and/or demands are nearing or exceeding supply. Protecting water distribution systems is an integral part of Canada's Science and Technology Strategy. Currently, there exist many pressures on the available water resources in Canada (and perhaps will continue to exist) that lead to pressures on water supply and demand. These include population growth, land use practices, community and economic development, climate change and other changes in ecosystems (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). The extent of existing water use requirements as well as the hydraulics and/or hydrological characteristics of water resources are important considerations in managing supply and demand. The lack of freshwater and/or groundwater sources in some parts of Alberta are becoming major concerns of water providers. In British Columbia (BC), the population growth rate is noticeably high in the Lower Mainland, the east coast of Vancouver Island, and parts of the Thompson-Okanagan region. As a result, water demand is relatively high and that puts stress on existing water supplies. Communities that are heavily influenced by seasonal tourism may have unique challenges in managing seasonal fluctuations in demand for domestic use. In Kelowna and Tofino (BC), the population grows 3- and 10-fold in the summer because of the significant amount of tourism in the areas. This is the same time as creeks are at their lowest flow-levels. In 2003, the water supply of Summerland (BC) depleted substantially. A significant conflict occurred between the provision of water in streams (to ensure fish survival) and the provision of water for farmers and food production. In 2010, the BC Ministry of Environment used its authority under the Water Act, to change the regulated amount of diversion and use of water, and invoked priority rights in the area of Chimney Lake (BC) (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). Climate change (e.g., reduced annual and seasonal precipitation, reduced snowpacks, loss of glaciers, increased drought and etc.) also places significant impacts on water demand and supply management. To ensure continued sustainability of freshwater for human use and ecosystem support, it is important to manage a striking balance between the amount of water available and that demanded. To achieve such a goal, the relevant decision makers and authorities must have a real-time and accurate knowledge of water demand and water availability. Such knowledge will assist the authorities in undertaking the best management and operating strategies to ensure an adequate supply of water without exhausting the available water resources. In the research proposed to NSERC Discovery Grant Program, I will focus on water demand forecasting. The long term objective of this research program is to create a mathematical modeling tool to forecast water demand for a water distribution system. To achieve this, the following steps will be completed. 1) Considering the hydrometric parameters (rainfall volume, relative humidity, and evaporation), climatic parameters (wind speed, air temperature and sunshine duration) and population as the most influential parameters, the relevant data will be collected from the responsible local, provincial, federal offices. The data will be assessed for their accuracy and completeness. 2) Chaos theory will be employed to develop the water demand forecasting model. 3) To validate the model, the water distribution system of the City of Kelowna (BC) will be studied.