Water Demand Forecasting for Water Distribution Systems - A Chaotic Approach

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Access to safe drinking water is imperative to human health and environment everywhere. Managing the water supply is of high importance particularly in regions where supplies and storage capacities are limited, and/or demands are nearing or exceeding supply. Protecting water distribution systems is an integral part of Canada's Science and Technology Strategy. Currently, there exist many pressures on the available water resources in Canada (and perhaps will continue to exist) that lead to pressures on water supply and demand. These include population growth, land use practices, community and economic development, climate change and other changes in ecosystems (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). The extent of existing water use requirements as well as the hydraulics and/or hydrological characteristics of water resources are important considerations in managing supply and demand. The lack of freshwater and/or groundwater sources in some parts of Alberta are becoming major concerns of water providers. In British Columbia (BC), the population growth rate is noticeably high in the Lower Mainland, the east coast of Vancouver Island, and parts of the Thompson-Okanagan region. As a result, water demand is relatively high and that puts stress on existing water supplies. Communities that are heavily influenced by seasonal tourism may have unique challenges in managing seasonal fluctuations in demand for domestic use. In Kelowna and Tofino (BC), the population grows 3- and 10-fold in the summer because of the significant amount of tourism in the areas. This is the same time as creeks are at their lowest flow-levels. In 2003, the water supply of Summerland (BC) depleted substantially. A significant conflict occurred between the provision of water in streams (to ensure fish survival) and the provision of water for farmers and food production. In 2010, the BC Ministry of Environment used its authority under the Water Act, to change the regulated amount of diversion and use of water, and invoked priority rights in the area of Chimney Lake (BC) (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). Climate change (e.g., reduced annual and seasonal precipitation, reduced snowpacks, loss of glaciers, increased drought and etc.) also places significant impacts on water demand and supply management. To ensure continued sustainability of freshwater for human use and ecosystem support, it is important to manage a striking balance between the amount of water available and that demanded. To achieve such a goal, the relevant decision makers and authorities must have a real-time and accurate knowledge of water demand and water availability. Such knowledge will assist the authorities in undertaking the best management and operating strategies to ensure an adequate supply of water without exhausting the available water resources. In the research proposed to NSERC Discovery Grant Program, I will focus on water demand forecasting. The long term objective of this research program is to create a mathematical modeling tool to forecast water demand for a water distribution system. To achieve this, the following steps will be completed. 1) Considering the hydrometric parameters (rainfall volume, relative humidity, and evaporation), climatic parameters (wind speed, air temperature and sunshine duration) and population as the most influential parameters, the relevant data will be collected from the responsible local, provincial, federal offices. The data will be assessed for their accuracy and completeness. 2) Chaos theory will be employed to develop the water demand forecasting model. 3) To validate the model, the water distribution system of the City of Kelowna (BC) will be studied.