Water Demand Forecasting for Water Distribution Systems - A Chaotic Approach

获得安全饮用水对任何地方的人类健康和环境都是至关重要的。管理供水非常重要，特别是在供应和储存能力有限、和/或需求接近或超过供应的地区。保护供水系统是加拿大科学和技术战略的组成部分。目前，加拿大可用的水资源存在许多压力(可能还会继续存在)，这导致了水的供需压力。这些问题包括人口增长、土地利用做法、社区和经济发展、气候变化和生态系统的其他变化(http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show).现有用水需求的范围以及水资源的水力学和(或)水文特性是管理供需的重要考虑因素。艾伯塔省一些地区缺乏淡水和/或地下水资源，这正成为供水供应商的主要关切。在不列颠哥伦比亚省，人口增长率在下大陆、温哥华岛东海岸和汤普森-奥卡纳根地区的部分地区明显较高。因此，水的需求相对较高，这给现有的水供应带来了压力。受季节性旅游严重影响的社区在管理家庭使用需求的季节性波动方面可能面临独特的挑战。在不列颠哥伦比亚省的基洛纳和托菲诺(BC)，由于这两个地区的大量旅游业，夏季的人口增长了3倍和10倍。这与小溪处于最低水位的时候是同一时间。2003年，夏地(BC)的水供应大量枯竭。在向溪流供水(以确保鱼类生存)与为农民和粮食生产提供水之间发生了重大冲突。2010年，不列颠哥伦比亚省环境部利用《水法》赋予的权力，改变了受管制的引水量和用水量，并援引了烟囱湖(BC)(http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show).地区的优先权利气候变化(例如，年度和季节降水量减少、积雪减少、冰川消失、干旱加剧等)还对水需求和供应管理产生重大影响。为了确保供人类使用和生态系统支持的淡水的持续可持续性，重要的是在可用水量和所需水量之间实现惊人的平衡。为了实现这一目标，有关决策者和当局必须实时、准确地了解水的需求和可获得性。这些知识将有助于当局采取最佳管理和运作战略，以确保在不耗尽现有水资源的情况下获得充足的供水。在向NSERC发现资助计划提出的研究中，我将重点放在水需求预测上。这项研究计划的长期目标是创建一种数学建模工具来预测供水系统的用水需求。为实现这一目标，将完成以下步骤。1)将水文参数(降雨量、相对湿度、蒸发量)、气候参数(风速、气温、日照时数)和人口作为影响最大的参数，相关数据将从主管地方、省、联邦办公室收集。将对数据的准确性和完整性进行评估。2)将混沌理论应用到需水预测模型中。3)以基洛纳市(BC)的给水系统为例，对模型进行了验证。

Access to safe drinking water is imperative to human health and environment everywhere. Managing the water supply is of high importance particularly in regions where supplies and storage capacities are limited, and/or demands are nearing or exceeding supply. Protecting water distribution systems is an integral part of Canada's Science and Technology Strategy. Currently, there exist many pressures on the available water resources in Canada (and perhaps will continue to exist) that lead to pressures on water supply and demand. These include population growth, land use practices, community and economic development, climate change and other changes in ecosystems (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). The extent of existing water use requirements as well as the hydraulics and/or hydrological characteristics of water resources are important considerations in managing supply and demand. The lack of freshwater and/or groundwater sources in some parts of Alberta are becoming major concerns of water providers. In British Columbia (BC), the population growth rate is noticeably high in the Lower Mainland, the east coast of Vancouver Island, and parts of the Thompson-Okanagan region. As a result, water demand is relatively high and that puts stress on existing water supplies. Communities that are heavily influenced by seasonal tourism may have unique challenges in managing seasonal fluctuations in demand for domestic use. In Kelowna and Tofino (BC), the population grows 3- and 10-fold in the summer because of the significant amount of tourism in the areas. This is the same time as creeks are at their lowest flow-levels. In 2003, the water supply of Summerland (BC) depleted substantially. A significant conflict occurred between the provision of water in streams (to ensure fish survival) and the provision of water for farmers and food production. In 2010, the BC Ministry of Environment used its authority under the Water Act, to change the regulated amount of diversion and use of water, and invoked priority rights in the area of Chimney Lake (BC) (http://www.ec.gc.ca/eau-water/default.asp?lang=En&n=9E0D4BC1-1&offset=3&toc=show). Climate change (e.g., reduced annual and seasonal precipitation, reduced snowpacks, loss of glaciers, increased drought and etc.) also places significant impacts on water demand and supply management. To ensure continued sustainability of freshwater for human use and ecosystem support, it is important to manage a striking balance between the amount of water available and that demanded. To achieve such a goal, the relevant decision makers and authorities must have a real-time and accurate knowledge of water demand and water availability. Such knowledge will assist the authorities in undertaking the best management and operating strategies to ensure an adequate supply of water without exhausting the available water resources. In the research proposed to NSERC Discovery Grant Program, I will focus on water demand forecasting. The long term objective of this research program is to create a mathematical modeling tool to forecast water demand for a water distribution system. To achieve this, the following steps will be completed. 1) Considering the hydrometric parameters (rainfall volume, relative humidity, and evaporation), climatic parameters (wind speed, air temperature and sunshine duration) and population as the most influential parameters, the relevant data will be collected from the responsible local, provincial, federal offices. The data will be assessed for their accuracy and completeness. 2) Chaos theory will be employed to develop the water demand forecasting model. 3) To validate the model, the water distribution system of the City of Kelowna (BC) will be studied.