Regional climate modeling of intensive storms of Central Alberta under possible climate change impact

随着地球变暖，更高的温度可能意味着更多的降水将在更短的时间间隔内下降，从而增加了极端风暴事件的频率和严重性。相反，全球变暖可能会改变加拿大城市现有的强度-持续时间-频率（IDF）曲线，包括埃德蒙顿。这是由埃德蒙顿市和NSERC资助的第一阶段和第二阶段研究的延续，在这些研究中，我们已经证明，根据受气候变化影响的区域气候模型（RCM）模拟的降水量得出的埃德蒙顿区域IDF曲线，未来短持续风暴的重现期预计会减少。这意味着埃德蒙顿的市政基础设施设计与旧的IDF曲线可能会遭受设计不足的问题，因此公共安全可能会受到损害。然而，这些结果是基于模拟的一个RCM没有考虑陆-气反馈。在该项目的第三阶段，称为天气研究和预报（WRF）的下一个版本的RCM将耦合到一个或多个陆面模式（LSM），以考虑陆-气反馈。此外，较新的RCM将受到政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的最新气候变化情景的影响，其结果将用于更新埃德蒙顿的区域IDF曲线。其结果将有利于埃德蒙顿市的管理和发展其基础设施。

As the Earth warms, higher temperatures likely mean that more precipitation will fall over shorter time intervals, thus increasing the frequency and severity of extreme storm events. Conversely, global warming could modify existing Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of Canadian cities, including those of Edmonton. This is a continuation of Phase I and II studies funded by the City of Edmonton and NSERC, where we have demonstrated that return periods of future short-duration storms based on regional IDF curves of Edmonton developed from precipitation simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) subject to climate change impact, are projected to decrease. This means that the municipal infrastructure of Edmonton designed with old IDF curves could suffer from under design problems and so public safety could be compromised. However, these results are based on the simulations of A RCM without considering land-atmospheric feedback. In Phase III of this project, the next version of RCM called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) will be coupled to one or more land surface models (LSM) to account for the land-atmosphere feedback. Further, the newer RCM will be subjected to the latest climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the results will be used to update the regional IDF curves for Edmonton. The results will benefit the City of Edmonton in the management and development of its infrastructure.