A developmental approach to the effects of scarcity on judgment and decision-making

稀缺性对判断和决策影响的发展方法

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04565
• 负责人: Ma, Lili
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: Ryerson University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=611112
• 关键词: developmental; approach; effects; scarcity; judgment

Scarcity has a profound impact on judgment and decision-making. Imagine that you are buying a bottle of wine and deciding between two brands. There is not much information you can rely on for a well thought-out decision, as the two brands are equally unfamiliar and the difference in their prices is negligible. However, they differ in relative frequency, in that one brand is abundant whereas the other one is scarce. Chances are you may judge the scarce one as better and prefer it to the abundant one. This decision-making process is an example of the scarcity effect, that is, scarcity enhances perceived value and desirability of things. Marketers and advertisers have long been capitalizing on this effect, by using tactics such as “available for 3 days only” and “limit one per person” to influence people’s purchase decisions. This effect applies not only to economic behaviour, but also to judgment and decision-making about resources, information, opportunities, experiences, and personal characteristics. The commodity theory describes the psychological effects of scarcity on decision-makers: Anything that can be owned, is useful, and can be transferred from one person to another will be valued to the extent that they are scarce or hard to obtain. Subsequent studies have provided a substantial body of empirical evidence supporting this theory. Three possible mechanisms have been proposed to explain how the scarcity effect arises: Scarcity can a) serve to people’s need for uniqueness, b) threaten people’s freedom of choices and lead to motivational arousal, and c) serve as a heuristic or rule-of-thumb. These mechanisms may point to the evolutionary implications of the scarcity effect. Supporting this, the effect has been observed in some animals. Thus, the scarcity effect may have evolutionary significance, and if so, it should be present early in development. Surprisingly, all previous studies on the scarcity effect have focused exclusively on adults. No studies have yet examined it from a developmental perspective. The proposed research aims to address this gap in the literature. In three series of studies, I investigate a) the developmental origins of the scarcity effect on judgment and decision-making (e.g., whether the scarcity of objects enhances their perceived value and desirability for young children, and if so, when this effect emerges in development); b) possible moderators of the scarcity effect on older children (e.g., whether older children take into account the attractiveness of objects and the cause of scarcity when they make a judgment or decision about scarce vs. abundant objects), and c) possible mechanisms that may induce the scarcity effect on younger children (e.g., whether covariation of attributes and motivational arousal due to threat to freedom of choices can induce the scarcity effect on younger children). The proposed research has significant theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically, it will advance our understanding of how scarcity influences human judgment and decision-making from a developmental perspective, an approach that has not been studied in the past. The findings will contribute to the discussions about the possible evolutionary implications of the scarcity effect, and will be of broad interest to psychologists, anthropologists, biologists, behavioural economists, and researchers in marketing and advertisement. Practically, this research is likely to appeal to the general public. The perception of scarcity is a major influence on our everyday judgments and decisions, from making daily purchases, choosing gifts, selecting mates, to competing for resources. Studying the developmental trajectory of the scarcity effect may yield insights pertinent to all of these practical issues.

稀缺性对判断和决策有着深远的影响。想象一下，你正在购买一瓶葡萄酒，并在两个品牌中做出选择。没有多少信息可以让你做出深思熟虑的决定，因为这两个品牌同样不熟悉，价格差异可以忽略不计。然而，它们在相对频率上有所不同，因为一个品牌丰富，而另一个品牌稀缺。你可能会认为稀缺的更好，而不是富足的。这个决策过程是稀缺性效应的一个例子，即稀缺性提高了事物的感知价值和可取性。长期以来，营销者和广告商一直在利用这一效应，通过使用“仅限3天”和“每人限购一次”等策略来影响人们的购买决定。这种影响不仅适用于经济行为，也适用于对资源、信息、机会、经验和个人特征的判断和决策。 大宗商品理论描述了稀缺性对决策者的心理影响：任何可以拥有、有用、可以从一个人转移到另一个人手中的东西，都会被估价到稀缺或难以获得的程度。随后的研究提供了大量的经验证据来支持这一理论。人们提出了三种可能的机制来解释稀缺性效应是如何产生的：稀缺性可以a)满足人们对独特性的需求，b)威胁人们的选择自由并导致动机唤醒，c)作为启发式或经验法则。这些机制可能指向稀缺效应的进化含义。支持这一点的是，在一些动物身上观察到了这种效果。因此，稀缺效应可能具有进化意义，如果是这样的话，它应该出现在发展的早期。令人惊讶的是，之前所有关于稀缺性效应的研究都只关注成年人。目前还没有研究从发展的角度来考察这一问题。这项拟议的研究旨在解决文献中的这一差距。 在三个系列的研究中，我调查了a)稀缺性对判断和决策的影响的发展根源(例如，物品的稀缺性是否提高了他们对幼儿的感知价值和愿望，如果是，这种影响在发展中何时出现)；(B)对年龄较大的儿童产生稀缺性效应的可能调节因素(例如，年龄较大的儿童在对稀缺物品与大量物品作出判断或决定时，是否考虑物品的吸引力和稀缺性的原因)，以及(C)可能导致对较小儿童产生稀缺性效应的机制(例如，由于对选择自由的威胁而导致的属性和动机唤醒的共同变化是否会对较小儿童产生稀缺性效应)。 本研究具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。从理论上讲，它将促进我们从发展的角度理解稀缺性如何影响人类的判断和决策，这是过去没有研究过的方法。这些发现将有助于关于稀缺效应可能的进化影响的讨论，并将引起心理学家、人类学家、生物学家、行为经济学家以及营销和广告研究人员的广泛兴趣。实际上，这项研究可能会吸引普通公众。对稀缺性的看法是对我们日常判断和决定的主要影响，从日常购买、选择礼物、选择伴侣，到争夺资源。研究稀缺效应的发展轨迹可能会产生与所有这些实际问题相关的见解。