Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Hazards and the Resilience and Sustainability of Infrastructures

气候变化对飓风灾害以及基础设施的弹性和可持续性的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2015-05990
• 负责人: Chouinard, Luc
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=613868
• 关键词: Impact; Climate; Change; Hurricane; Hazards

Many parts of Canada have experienced hurricanes in the past and will again. Hurricane Hazel caused 81 fatalities in Toronto in 1954 and Typhoon Freda claimed six lives in southwest British Columbia in 1962. One of the most destructive hurricanes to hit a Canadian city was Juan in 2003. It struck Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island as a Category 2 hurricane, causing major damage, especially within the urban core of Halifax. The storm killed 8 people and caused more than $200 million in damage. It was the region’s most powerful hurricane since 1873. Hurricane Sandy was also unusual in more ways than its size. One factor contributing to the storm strength was abnormally warm sea surface temperatures off the east coast, which is probably linked to global warming. “Hurricane Sandy’s 4m storm surge may be an example of what will, by midcentury, be the “new norm on the Eastern Seaboard.” The long-term objective of the DG is to identify the underlying mechanisms and define the factors that affect hurricane and extra-tropical storm hazards along the East Coast to improve design and resilience for a wide range of infrastructure (e.g. offshore and coastal facilities). Oil exploration is predicted to increase significantly on the East Coast and is poised to become an important future major economic zone for Canada. The short-term objectives (next 5 years) are to: 1: develop a model that can represent site specific hazards for coastal and offshore locations along the East Coast of Canada for the recurrence and severity of storms; 2: predict effects associated with these storms in terms of wind, current, wave and storm surge, 3: estimate the impacts of climate change relative to impacts on storms and water level, and 4: develop procedures for the propagation uncertainty in the models and obtain estimates of risks for onshore and offshore facilities. First hurricane hazard models will be formulated for site specific hazards as is currently done for the building codes. These models will be based on non-homogenous Poisson processes for track location and frequency and spatially dependent probability distribution functions for intensity. The models will then be modified to account for meteorological and oceanographic features known to affect the intensity and trajectories of hurricanes. These historical and predicted characteristics of these features will be analyzed to incorporate potential effects of climate change. Surrogate models for hurricane effects (wave, currents and surge) will be developed using Joint Probability Methods and Support Vector Machines to allow the analysis of several scenarios as well to propagate uncertainty in the models for the prediction of hazards and risks. The DG proposal will directly support 2 PhD, 3 MEng thesis and 4 undergraduate students in an area of high demand and of great importance for the future of our community within a multidisciplinary team and engineers and scientists.

加拿大许多地区过去曾经历过飓风，而且还会再次经历。1954年，飓风黑兹尔在多伦多造成81人死亡，1962年台风弗雷达在不列颠哥伦比亚省西南部造成6人死亡。2003年袭击加拿大城市的最具破坏性的飓风之一是胡安。它袭击了新斯科舍省和爱德华王子岛，为2级飓风，造成了重大破坏，特别是在哈利法克斯的市中心。这场风暴造成8人死亡，造成超过2亿美元的损失。这是该地区自1873年以来最强的飓风。飓风桑迪在更多方面也不寻常，不仅仅是它的规模。造成风暴强度的一个因素是东海岸附近异常温暖的海面温度，这可能与全球变暖有关。飓风桑迪的4米风暴潮可能是一个例子，到本世纪中叶，这将成为“东海岸的新标准”。副秘书长的长期目标是确定影响东海岸飓风和热带风暴灾害的基本机制和因素，以改进各种基础设施(如近海和沿海设施)的设计和复原力。东海岸的石油勘探预计将大幅增加，并有望成为加拿大未来重要的主要经济区。短期目标(今后5年)如下：1：开发一个模型，能够反映风暴复发和严重程度对加拿大东海岸沿海和近海地点的具体危害；2：从风、流、浪和风暴潮方面预测与这些风暴有关的影响；3：估计气候变化相对于风暴和水位的影响；4：为模型中的传播不确定性制订程序，并估计陆上和近海设施的风险。首先，将像目前为建筑规范所做的那样，为特定地点的危险制定飓风危险模型。这些模型将基于轨道位置和频率的非齐次泊松过程以及强度的空间相关概率分布函数。然后将对模型进行修改，以考虑已知的影响飓风强度和轨迹的气象和海洋特征。将分析这些特征的历史和预测特征，以纳入气候变化的潜在影响。将使用联合概率方法和支持向量机开发飓风影响(海浪、海流和巨浪)的替代模型，以便能够分析几种情景，并在预测危险和风险的模型中传播不确定性。DG的提议将直接支持2名博士、3名硕士论文和4名本科生，在一个多学科团队和工程师和科学家的高需求和对我们社区的未来非常重要的领域。