Quantification of fire effects and post-fire dynamics

由于全球气候变化，加拿大森林中的自然干扰预计将在频率、严重程度和程度上增加。充分了解这些干扰对森林碳库的影响以及干扰后的动态(如枯木动态、更新)是至关重要的。因此，需要根据一系列生态区域的类型和严重程度来量化干扰效应和恢复动态。需要将短期和长期的干扰影响纳入碳预算模型，这些模型越来越多地被用于制定适应气候变化的战略，并确保可持续的森林管理做法。 我研究的长期目标有三个：(1)提高我们解释和模拟干扰严重程度及其对碳库的影响的空间变异性的能力；(2)通过量化干扰对森林资源的影响，增加我们对自然干扰对森林资源影响的了解；(3)通过实施和分析长期监测区，提高我们对森林生态系统干扰后动态的理解。拟议的工作侧重于通过分析不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC)内陆和沿海森林中导致卑诗省紧迫的环境和社会问题的森林野火来实现长期研究目标。拟议的工作将侧重于三个相互关联的研究项目：(1)火灾严重程度的空间变异性和对碳库的影响；(2)区域火灾影响估计；(3)不列颠哥伦比亚省沿海森林火灾后监测。 拟议的研究计划的结果将提高我们评估、建模和模拟即时和长期火灾影响的能力。需要更多地了解自然干扰动态，以支持导致可持续森林管理的森林管理决策，并将提供参数以改进现有碳预算模型的校准。

Natural disturbances in Canadian forests are expected to increase in frequency, severity, and extent due to global climate change. It is critical to fully understand the impact of these disturbances on forest carbon pools as well as post-disturbance dynamics (e.g., dead wood dynamics, regeneration). As a result, disturbance effects and recovery dynamics need to be quantified by type and severity across a range of ecoregions. The immediate and long-term disturbance impacts need to be incorporated into carbon budget models which are increasingly being used to develop adaptation strategies to climate change and to ensure sustainable forest management practices. The long-term goals of my research are threefold: (1) enhance our ability to explain and model spatial variability in disturbance severity and its impact on carbon pools; (2) advance our knowledge of natural disturbance impacts on forest resources by quantifying disturbance effects with methods that allow making causal inferences from forest inventory data in combination with remote sensing data; and (3) improve our understanding of post-disturbance dynamics in forest ecosystems by implementing and analyzing long-term monitoring plots. The proposed work focuses on achieving the long-term research goals by analyzing forest wildfires in British Columbia (BC) interior and coastal forests that cause pressing environmental and social problems in BC. The proposed work will focus on three inter-related research projects: (1) Spatial variability of fire severity and impacts on carbon pools; (2) regional fire effects estimates, and (3) post-fire monitoring in BC coastal forests. The results of the proposed research program will improve our ability to assess, model, and simulate immediate and long-term fire effects. Increased understanding of natural disturbance dynamics is needed to support forest management decisions that lead to sustainable forest management and will also provide parameters to improve the calibration of existing carbon budget models.