Variation in natural selection, population demography and individual life history in insular plant and bird populations

环境变化是保护本地物种和生态系统的一个关键威胁，但这些变化通过多种途径起作用，并在进化的时间尺度上相互作用，因此需要对个体和种群进行详细的长期研究来描述和解释。具体而言，1）气候手段和极端及其对适合度的影响，2）人类对栖息地类型或质量的直接影响，以及3）人类对社区成员或优势的间接影响，几乎在地球仪的所有地区都在发生变化。然而，这些变化对个别物种的持久性或环境产品和服务的生产的长期影响仍然很不确定。 识别和解开环境变化对管理和非管理的鸟类，哺乳动物和植物种群的影响一直是我32年工作的重点，因为这些因素可以驱动生态和进化变化以及物种的持久性。在这个建议中，我概述了现有理论的测试，使用两个杰出的比较和横截面研究的植物和动物种群已经监测了12-44年，包括：1）最详细的研究遗传学，人口统计学和个人生活史的自由生活的鸟类（歌麻雀，

Environmental change is a key threat to the conservation of native species and ecosystems but these changes act via multiple paths and interact over evolutionary timescales, and thus require detailed, long-term studies of individuals and populations to characterize and explain. Specifically, change in 1) climate means and extremes and their effect on fitness, 2) the direct effects of humans on habitat type or quality, and 3) the indirect effects of humans on community membership or dominance are underway in virtually all regions of the globe. However, the long-term influence of these changes on the persistence of individual species or production of environmental goods and services remains highly uncertain.  Identifying and disentangling the effects of environmental change in managed and unmanaged bird, mammal and plant populations has been the focus of my work for 32 yrs, because these factors can drive ecological and evolutionary change and the persistence of species. In this proposal, I outline tests of existing theory using two outstanding comparative and cross-sectional studies of plant and animal populations already monitored for 12–44 yrs, including: 1) the most detailed study of the genetics, demography and individual life history of a free-living bird ever undertaken (song sparrows,