Study of arctic and subarctic winter extreme events in a changing climate/Étude des évènements extrêmes hivernaux en régions arctiques et subarctiques dans un climat en changement

气候变化中北极和亚北极冬季极端事件的研究/âtude des évènements extrémes hivernaux en régions arctiques et subarctiques dans un climat en changement

• 批准号: 435083-2013
• 负责人: Langlois, Alexandre
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Université de Sherbrooke
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=633955
• 关键词: Study; arctic; subarctic; winter; extreme

The first and strongest signs of global climate variability and change have been observed in northern regions over the past 3 decades which has led to a variety of strong climate-related feedbacks. A direct consequence of warming temperatures in the North is the increased occurrence of winter extreme events (WEE) such as rain-on-snow, heat waves, blizzards and heavy snowfall that are expected to last longer. Hence, the overarching goal of the proposed research is to monitor WEE in subarctic and arctic environments using 30 years of satellite remote sensing data (microwave, multispectral) and modeling at various scales. In order for the proposed research to achieve its goals, my approach is twofold: 1) data field collection is planned to observe and characterize impacts of extreme events on surface properties and the associated electromagnetic responses in order to develop WEE detection algorithms using remote sensing. The WEE will then be monitored from space in order to identify trends in event occurrences; 2) the obtained results will be compared with snow model simulations to evaluate their performance in simulating WEE as well as identifying associated biases in climate scenarios. The novelty of the proposed research resides in the fact that the occurrence of WEE in arctic and subarctic regions has not been studied using remote sensing despite its significant impacts at various levels. This is mostly due to a lack of data and expertise given the harsh winter working conditions. Subarctic and arctic WEE are of particular relevance from scientific (e.g., climate scenario development), economic (e.g., damage to infrastructure) and social (e.g., public safety and natural hazards) perspectives. The proposed project provides a unique opportunity to address these urgent needs in the context of climate change and increased interest in northern natural resources. The remote sensing science that would be developed will improve our current knowledge of the state of subarctic and arctic regions and will be of significant relevance to decision-makers and northern stakeholders.

在过去30年里，全球气候变率和变化的最初和最强烈的迹象已在北部地区观测到，这导致了各种与气候有关的强烈反馈。北方气温变暖的一个直接后果是冬季极端事件（WEE）的增加，如雨雪、热浪、暴风雪和大雪，预计这些事件将持续更长时间。因此，所提出的研究的总体目标是利用30年的卫星遥感数据（微波、多光谱）和不同尺度的建模来监测亚北极和北极环境中的微大气。为了使所提出的研究实现其目标，我的方法是双重的：1)计划数据场收集，以观察和表征极端事件对表面性质和相关电磁响应的影响，以便使用遥感开发WEE检测算法。然后将从太空监测微信号，以确定事件发生的趋势；2)将获得的结果与雪模式模拟结果进行比较，以评估其在模拟WEE以及识别气候情景下相关偏差方面的性能。该研究的新颖之处在于，尽管微雨在各个层面上产生了重大影响，但尚未利用遥感研究北极和亚北极地区微雨的发生。这主要是由于在严酷的冬季工作条件下缺乏数据和专业知识。从科学（例如，气候情景发展）、经济（例如，对基础设施的破坏）和社会（例如，公共安全和自然灾害）的角度来看，亚北极和北极WEE特别相关。在气候变化和对北方自然资源的兴趣增加的背景下，拟议的项目为解决这些迫切需求提供了一个独特的机会。将发展的遥感科学将改善我们目前对亚北极和北极地区状况的了解，并将对决策者和北方利益攸关方具有重大意义。