Atmospheric circulations and climate change

大气环流和气候变化

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05416
• 负责人: Merlis, Timothy
• 金额: $ 1.89万
• 依托单位: McGill University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634129
• 关键词: Atmospheric; circulations; climate; change

Atmospheric circulations play a fundamental role in determining the climate of Earth. Under climate change scenarios, the atmospheric circulation mediates surface temperature and radiation changes. As a result, knowledge of the response of these circulations to changes in greenhouse gases and other radiative forcing agents is central to confident predictions of Earth's future climate. The atmospheric circulation is, in turn, affected by changes in temperature and radiation. The goal of this proposed research program is, therefore, to expose both the effects of climate change on the atmospheric circulation and the effects of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the other aspects of the climate. Specifically, this research program will address (i) the physical mechanisms underlying the sensitivity of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation to the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, (ii) the interactions between the mean tropical circulation, atmospheric humidity and clouds, and the radiative heating that drives the circulation, and (iii) the effect of these mean circulation changes on extreme weather such as hurricanes. This research will use a hierarchy of climate models that explicitly simulate the fluid motion of the atmosphere and have representations of the hydrological cycle and radiation that range from simplified ones to those of comprehensive climate models. This approach of reducing the complexity of Earth's climate through simplifying the representations of processes within climate models allows the essential physical processes responsible for the changes in climate to be revealed. The physical mechanisms elucidated in the hierarchy of climate models will be validated by comparison to observations of Earth and will be used to analyze and interpret the projections of future climate prepared for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Thus, the research results will have implications for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

大气环流在决定地球气候方面起着重要作用。在气候变化情景下，大气环流介导地表温度和辐射变化。因此，了解这些环流对温室气体和其他辐射强迫因子变化的反应，对于准确预测地球未来气候至关重要。反过来，大气环流又受到温度和辐射变化的影响。因此，这项拟议研究计划的目标是揭示气候变化对大气环流的影响以及大气环流变化对气候其他方面的影响。具体来说，这项研究计划将解决（一）的平均热带大气环流的二氧化碳的辐射强迫的敏感性的物理机制，（二）平均热带环流，大气湿度和云之间的相互作用，以及驱动循环的辐射加热，和（iii）这些平均环流变化对极端天气，如飓风的影响。这项研究将使用一系列气候模型，这些模型明确地模拟大气的流体运动，并具有从简化模型到综合气候模型的水文循环和辐射的表示。这种通过简化气候模型中过程的表示来降低地球气候复杂性的方法，可以揭示造成气候变化的基本物理过程。将通过与对地球的观测进行比较来验证气候模型层次中阐明的物理机制，并将其用于分析和解释为联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会编写的未来气候预测。因此，研究结果将对减缓和适应气候变化战略产生影响。