Variability and Predictability of Near-Surface Winds

近地表风的变化和可预测性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-06509
• 负责人: Monahan, Adam
• 金额: $ 3.79万
• 依托单位: University of Victoria
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=634132
• 关键词: Variability; Predictability; Near; Surface; Winds

The most familiar feature of the motion of air near the Earth's surface is its variability. While variations on daily or seasonal timescales are regular, most near-surface wind variability is irregular - from short-timescale turbulent fluctuations to longer timescale variations driven by large-scale weather and climate processes. Understanding the variability of near-surface winds is important because they are a leading-order control on exchanges of mass, energy and momentum between the atmosphere and the land or ocean surfaces; wind energy is a significant renewable energy source; and wind extremes can be damaging to the natural and built environments. Although the underlying physics is the same, wind behaves differently over land than over water. As well, different physical processes determine its variability on different timescales. A central goal of my research is to build a fundamental understanding of these controls on variability and the consequent implications for predictability. The following projects are proposed towards this end. My research group and I will: 1. use modern techniques from applied mathematics and statistics to investigate transitions between near-surface wind "regimes" which we have shown are associated with unusually strong nighttime winds. 2. determine how changes in sea surface temperature modulate the mean, variability, and extremes of near-surface wind over the ocean.3. study new approaches to the problem of fitting wind observations to our wind models, to improve their quantitative utility. 4. examine the physical reasons for the observed difference in the statistical predictability of winds coming from different directions. 5. quantify how the predictability of wind speed changes on different timescales. 6. assess the physical controls on the fact that the "memory" of wind variability falls off at different rates for winds from different directions.This proposed research builds in new and important directions on the foundational research we have carried out in recent years. The new research will result in important advances in our fundamental physical and mathematical understanding of the variability and extremes of surface winds, with implications for their simulation in comprehensive climate models and for the assessment and prediction of the wind energy resource.

地球表面附近空气运动的最熟悉的特征是它的可变性。虽然每日或季节时间尺度的变化是有规律的，但大多数近地面风的变化是不规则的-从短时间尺度的湍流波动到大尺度天气和气候过程驱动的较长时间尺度的变化。了解近地表风的变化很重要，因为它们是大气与陆地或海洋表面之间质量、能量和动量交换的主导控制;风能是一种重要的可再生能源;极端风可能会破坏自然和建筑环境。虽然基本的物理原理是相同的，但风在陆地上的行为与在水上的行为不同。同样，不同的物理过程决定了它在不同时间尺度上的可变性。我的研究的一个中心目标是建立一个基本的了解这些控制可变性和可预测性的影响。为此目的提出了下列项目。我的研究小组和我将：1。使用应用数学和统计学的现代技术来研究近地面风“制度”之间的转换，我们已经证明了这与异常强烈的夜间风有关。2.确定海洋表面温度的变化如何调节海洋近地表风的平均值、变率和极端值。研究新的方法来解决风观测与我们的风模型相匹配的问题，以提高它们的定量效用。4.研究观测到的来自不同方向的风的统计可预测性差异的物理原因。5.量化风速的可预测性在不同时间尺度上的变化。6.评估物理控制的事实，即“记忆”的风变福尔斯下降在不同的速度从不同的方向。这项拟议的研究建立在新的和重要的方向，我们已经进行了基础研究，在最近几年。这项新研究将使我们对地表风的变化和极端情况的基本物理和数学理解取得重要进展，并对综合气候模型中的模拟以及风能资源的评估和预测产生影响。