NEON RCN: The Ecological Forecasting Initiative RCN: Using NEON-enabled near-term forecasting to synthesize our understanding of predictability across ecological systems and scales

21世纪的特点是重大的环境变化，这些变化改变了社会提供清洁水、储存碳以及支持动植物所依赖的生态系统。预测和预测这些系统的未来可以帮助资源经理预测和响应这些变化。生态预测还通过开发和测试模型以及测试生态系统如何运行的不同观点来促进科学理解。为了利用预测的力量，需要一个实践社区。这个社区将建立制定和传达预报的标准。它将分享生成具有已知不确定性的预测的最佳实践。该组织将创建工具和教育材料，使生态学家能够开始预测。生态预测倡议研究协调网络奖将围绕大陆范围的国家生态观测网络(NEON)的预测数据建立这个实践社区。通过关注霓虹灯的数据，社区将面临挑战，以开发和评估对美国各地存在的各种环境的预测。该奖项将培训数百名早期职业研究人员和研究生进行生态预测。生态预测倡议研究协调网络将利用一系列网络研讨会、会议和协作软件开发活动来解决以下目标：(1)开发归档和共享霓虹灯启用的生态预报的最佳实践，(2)增加霓虹灯启用的预报的数量、多样性和质量，(3)通过开发生态预报方法的开放教程来培训生态界制作霓虹灯启用的预报，(4)促进和支持生态学家之间致力于预测知识转移的协作互动，(5)培养学术生态预报社区和使用预报指导决策的使命驱动机构之间的联系，以及(6)综合现有预报和新的霓虹灯启用预报，以评估跨生态系统和尺度的可预测性限度。总体而言，这些目标集中在解决理解自然的可预测性这一重大挑战上。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The 21st century is characterized by major environmental changes that alter the ecosystems society depends on for supplying clean water, storing carbon, and supporting plants and animals. Predicting and forecasting the future of these systems can help resource managers anticipate and respond to these changes. Ecological forecasts also advance scientific understanding by developing and testing models and testing alternative views of how ecological systems operate. To harness the power of forecasting, a community of practice is needed. This community will establish standards for developing and communicating forecasts. It will share best practices for generating forecasts with known uncertainties. The group will create tools and educational materials to enable ecologists to begin forecasting. The Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network award will build this community of practice around forecasting data from the continental-scale National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). By focusing on data from NEON, the community will be challenged to develop and evaluate forecasts for a diversity of environments that exist across the United States. The award will train hundreds of early career researchers and graduate students in ecological forecasting.The Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network will use a set of network workshops, conferences, and collaborative software development events to address the following objectives: (1) develop best practices for archiving and sharing NEON-enabled ecological forecasts, (2) increase the number, diversity, and quality of NEON-enabled forecasts, (3) train the ecological community to produce NEON-enabled forecasts by developing open tutorials in ecological forecasting methods, (4) facilitate and support collaborative interactions dedicated to forecasting knowledge transfer among ecologists, (5) cultivate connections between the academic ecological forecasting community and mission-driven agencies that use forecasts to guide decision-making, and (6) synthesize existing forecasts and new NEON-enabled forecasts to evaluate limits to forecastability across ecological systems and scales. Overall, these objectives are focused on solving the grand challenge of understanding the predictability of nature.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.