Mathematical models in epidemiology

流行病学中的数学模型

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-03706
• 负责人: Brauer, Fred
• 金额: $ 1.31万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=635694
• 关键词: Mathematical; models; epidemiology

The age of infection epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick (1927) was neglected for many years but has become a useful tool in studying epidemics. It allows a general compartmental structure including quarantine, isolation, and treatment and affords a way to compare effectiveness of different control strategies. However, it does not include such aspects as heterogeneity of mixing, indirect disease transmission through infection by contact with pathogens shed by infected individuals, and the development of drug resistant strains in populations including antiviral treatment of infected individuals. We plan to study extensions of the age of infection model to include these aspects.

Kermack和McKendrick（1927）的传染年龄流行病模型多年来被忽视，但已成为研究流行病的有用工具。它允许一个一般的隔间结构，包括检疫，隔离和治疗，并提供了一种方法来比较不同的控制策略的有效性。然而，它不包括混合的异质性、通过与受感染个体散发的病原体接触而感染的间接疾病传播以及群体中耐药菌株的发展，包括受感染个体的抗病毒治疗。我们计划研究扩展的年龄感染模型，包括这些方面。