Energy Transition Pathways: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

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Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future. Strategies for dealing with climate change enter three categories. Mitigation aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g., by substituting fossil fuel by renewables in energy systems. Adaptation aims to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself, e.g., by building sea walls to defend against rising seas. Finally, climate geoengineering corresponds to a deliberate modification of the climate system, e.g., the injection of sulfur in the stratosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation. International climate agreements are calling for a reduction in GHG emissions, but the latter are still increasing globally. Alternative strategies should therefore be considered, despite their associated uncertainties (e.g., in terms of effectiveness for adaptation or side effects for climate geoengineering). The general objective of this research is to assess how adaptation and climate geoengineering may affect the transition towards cleaner energy systems needed to curb GHG emissions. The methodology relies on integrated assessment modelling to determine optimal climate policies. This approach combines, within a mathematical model, key elements of the economic and biophysical systems, elements that are underlying the climate change phenomenon. This research will contribute to the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs) by combining detailed representations of the energy sector (to explicit GHG abatement options) with the modeling of adaptation and geoengineering measures. A specific attention will be given to the many uncertainties surrounding the climate change issue. By performing climate policy analyses for Canada and other world regions, this research will also contribute to the assessment of possible climate change strategies. Research incorporating mitigation, adaptation and climate geoengineering options into IAMs is uncommon. The interest of this research is first to contribute to an IAM literature on combining these strategies that is still in its infancy. As such, this research will be of interest to the entire integrated assessment community, which includes Environment Canada and Natural Resources Canada. The policy analyses proposed in this research will also benefit Canadian policy makers and Canadian companies. Indeed, on the one hand, it will help Canadian policy makers design sound climate policies and better identify transition pathways toward more sustainable energy futures. On the other hand, this research will provide the many Canadian companies that are active in the nation’s natural resources sector with different analyses of possible energy futures. This will contribute to their understanding of their business environment and help them successfully compete in changing energy markets.